Idaho Staff Member
Dr. Matthew R Falcy
Assistant Unit Leader
Phone: (20) -
Email: mfalcy@usgs.gov
Faculty Email: mfalcy@uidaho.edu
Faculty Website
Links:
Education
- Ph D Iowa State University 2011
- MS Universidad de Chile 2004
- MS Portland State Univeristy 2004
- BS University of California, Davis 1997
Biography
Dr. Falcy is Assistant Unit Leader and Assistant Professor of Biometrics in the Department of Fish and Wildlife Sciences at the University of Idaho. Matt currently works on fish and wildlife problems that emphasize modeling. Using Bayesian statistics, math, and numerical simulations, Matt’s research seeks to project population dynamics under future conditions. This sometimes includes modeling the interactions between behavior, environment, and other species. Matt is also interested in optimizing human decision-making around management objectives and measures of scientific evidence about the state of nature. Matt teaches graduate courses on Ecological Modeling and Bayesian Analysis in Ecology. Before becoming Assistant Unit Leader in Idaho in 2021, Matt worked for the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife for ten years, where he developed salmonid population models and decision support tools. Prior to that, he obtained a PhD in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology with a minor is Statistics from Iowa State University.
Areas of Expertise
AI/Machine Learning, Adaptive Management, Behavioral Ecology, Climate Change, Decision Support/Analysis, Evolutionary Ecology, Fisheries Management, Landscape Ecology, Movement Ecology, Population Dynamics, Population and Community Ecology, Predator-Prey Dynamics, Species Distribution Modeling, Species Status Assessments, Statistics and Modelling, T&E Species Management, Wildlife Management
Taxon Groups Studied
Anadromous Fishes, Carnivores, Freshwater Fishes, Nongame Fish/Wildlife, Salmonids, Small Mammals, Species of Greatest Conservation Need, Ungulates
| Research Publications | Publication Date |
|---|---|
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McCormick, J.L, and Falcy, M.R. 2015. Evaluation of non-traditional modelling techniques for forecasting salmon returns. Fisheries Management and Ecology 22:269-278. DOI:10.1111/FME.12122 | Abstract | Publisher Website |
December 2015 |
| Johnson, M.A., M.K. Jones, M.R. Falcy, J. Spangler, R.B. Couture, and D.L.G. Noakes. 2023. Can angler-assisted broodstock collection programs improve harvest rates of hatchery-produced steelhead? Environmental Biology of Fishes. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10641-023-01401-5 | Abstract | Publisher Website | February 2023 |
|
Falcy, M.R., and Estades, C.F. 2007. Effectiveness of corridors relative to enlargement of habitat patches. Conservation Biology 21(5):1341-1346. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00766.x | Abstract | Download | Publisher Website |
December 2007 |
|
Falcy, M.R., and Danielson, B.J. 2014. Post-hurricane recovery and long-term viability of the Alabama beach mouse. Biological Conservation 178: 28-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2014.07.010 | Abstract | Publisher Website |
December 2014 |
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Falcy, M.R., and Danielson, B.J. 2013. Assessment of competitive release of endangered beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus ammobates). Journal of Mammalogy 94: 584-590. https://doi.org/10.1644/12-MAMM-A-231.1 | Abstract | Publisher Website |
December 2013 |
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Falcy, M.R., and Danielson, B.J. 2013. A complex relationship between moonlight and temperature on the foraging behavior of the Alabama beach mouse. Ecology 94: 2632-2637. https://doi.org/10.1890/13-0426.1 | Abstract | Publisher Website |
December 2013 |
|
Falcy, M.R., and Danielson, B.J. 2011. When sinks rescue sources in dynamic environments. In Liu, J., Hull, V., Morzillo, A., and Weins, J. (Eds.). Sources, Sinks, and Sustainability. Cambridge Studies in Landscape Ecology. ISBN: 9780521145961 | Abstract | Publisher Website |
December 2011 |
|
Falcy, M.R., McCormick, J.L., Miller, S.A. 2016. Proxies in practice: Calibration and validation of multiple indices of animal abundance. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management. 7: 117-128. https://doi.org/10.3996/092015-JFWM-090 | Abstract | Publisher Website |
December 2016 |
| Falcy, M.R. 2023. Inferring hatchery effects using spawner-recruit data: Comment on Courter et al. (2022). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. | Abstract | January 2023 |
| Falcy, M.R. 2021. Using social values in the prioritization of research: quantitative examples and generalizations. Ecology and Evolution 11: 18000-18010. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8394 | Abstract | Download | Publisher Website | December 2021 |
| Falcy, M.R. 2018. A cost-optimization framework for planning applied environmental science. BioScience 68:912-922. doi:10.1093/biosci/biy109 | Abstract | Download | Publisher Website | December 2018 |
|
Falcy, M.R. 2015. Righting the resource management ship: a response to Grose. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 30:294-295. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2015.02.003 | Abstract | Publisher Website |
December 2015 |
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Falcy, M.R. 2015. Density-dependent habitat selection of spawning Chinook salmon: broad scale evidence and implications. Journal of Animal Ecology 84: 545-553. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.12297 | Abstract | Publisher Website |
December 2015 |
| Falcy, M.R. 2009. Theoretical perspectives on habitat destruction. In Kudrow, N.J. (Ed.). Conservation of Natural Resources. Nova Sciences Publishers. ISBN: 978-1-60741-178-9 | December 2009 |
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Duthie, A.B., and Falcy, M.R. 2013. The influence of habitat autocorrelation on plants and their seed-eating pollinators. Ecological Modelling 251:260-270. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.12.019 | Publisher Website |
December 2013 |
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Deitloff, J., Falcy, M.R., Krenz, J.D., and McMillan, B.R. 2010. Correlating small mammal abundance to climatic variation over twenty years. Journal of Mammalogy 91(1):193-199. https://doi.org/10.1644/08-MAMM-A-267R.1 | Abstract | Publisher Website |
December 2010 |
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Chilcote, M.W., Goodson, K.W., and Falcy, M.R. 2011. Reduced recruitment performance in natural populations of anadromous salmonids associated with hatchery-reared fish. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 68:511-522. https://doi.org/10.1139/F10-168 | Abstract | Publisher Website |
December 2011 |
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Bangs, B., Falcy, M.R., Scheerer, P.D., and Clements, S. 2013. Comparison of three methods for marking a small floodplain minnow. Animal Biotelemetry 1:18. https://doi.org/10.1186/2050-3385-1-18 | Abstract | Publisher Website |
December 2013 |
| Project | Completion Date |
|---|---|
| Whitetail deer foraging behavior | June 2024 |
| Mule deer in changing British Columbia forests | August 2024 |
| A Bayesian integrated population model for Kootenai River burbot | December 2024 |
| Caribou recovery modeling | September 2023 |
| Steelhead run reconstruction modeling | August 2024 |
| Patterns and processes in multi-predator dynamical systems | June 2025 |
| Presentations | Presentation Date |
|---|---|
| Winkel, B., D. Ausband, M. Falcy, R. Serrouya, and B. Morlin. 2023. Migratory patterns and plasticity of Southern Mountain Caribou in a changing landscape. North American Caribou Workshop and Arctic Ungulate Conference. Anchorage, AK. | May 2023 |
| Vosbigian, R., L. Wendling, T. Copeland, and M. Falcy. 2023. Two-year cycles in Snake River steelhead growth suggest competition with Pink Salmon in the Pacific Ocean. Idaho Chapter of the American Fisheries Society. Boise, ID. | May 2023 |
| Lubenau, B.M., Ausband, D.E., Falcy, M.R., Robert Serrouya, R., and Morlin, B. 2024. New Boot Scootin’: the Migratory Plasticity of Southern Mountain Caribou. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Science of the Service, Idaho, USA. | March 2024 |
| Lubenau, B.M., Ausband, D.E., Falcy, M.R., Robert Serrouya, R., and Morlin, B. 2024. New Boot Scootin’: the Migratory Plasticity of Southern Mountain Caribou. Idaho Chapter of the Wildlife Society, Coeur d' Alene, Idaho, USA. | March 2024 |
| Heishman, J., and M. Falcy. 2023. Age-structured survival rates of Burbot in the Kootenai River's hatchery-augmented fishery. Idaho Chapter of American Fisheries Society. Boise, ID. | May 2023 |
| Falcy, M. and R. Constable. 2022. Quantifying the relationship between snorkel counts and mark-recapture estimates of juvenile salmonids at multiple scales. Presented at the national meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Spokane, WA. | August 2022 |
| Falcy, M. 2022. Quantifying the relationship between snorkel counts and mark-recapture estimates of juvenile salmonids at multiple scales. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Spokane, WA. | August 2022 |
| Falcy, M. 2021. Combining matrix models and decision theory to manage steelhead harvest. Pacific Coast Steelhead Management Meeting. Online. | March 2021 |
| Falcy, M. 2020. Science as Bayesian model averaging, with applications to density dependence. Oregon Chapter of the American Fisheries Society. Bend, OR. | January 2020 |
| Falcy, M. 2020. Meditations on scientific decision making. Meeting of the Conservation and Recovery Program of the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. Corvallis, OR. | January 2020 |
| Falcy, M. 2019. Detecting management regime shifts in dynamic environments. North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission Meeting. Portland, OR. | January 2019 |
| Falcy, M. 2019. Designing biological reserves on stream networks. Oregon Chapter of American Fisheries Society. Bend, OR. | January 2019 |
| Falcy, M. 2019. Middle Fork John Day Spring Chinook life cycle PVA. NOAA AMIP Life-cycle Meeting. Hood River, OR. | January 2019 |
| Falcy, M. 2018. Population viability of Willamette River winter steelhead: An assessment of the effects of sea lions at Willamette Falls. Pacific Coast Steelhead Management Meeting. Walla Walla, Wa. | January 2018 |
| Falcy, M. 2018. Models to support Oregon's water prioritization. Statewide Water Symposium. Corvallis, OR. | September 2018 |
| Falcy, M. 2018. Effects of sea lions on Willamette River winter steelhead viability. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Willamette River Science Review. Corvallis, OR. | January 2018 |
| Falcy, M. 2018. Effects of sea lion predation on Willamette River winter steelhead viability. Salmon Ocean Ecology Meeting. Newport, OR. | January 2018 |
| Falcy, M. 2017. Detecting the effects of management regime shifts in dynamic environments using multi-population state-space models. National Meeting of the Ecological Society of America. Portland, OR. | January 2017 |
| Falcy, M. 2017. Conservation decision making: Integrating the precautionary principle with uncertainty. Seminar, Oregon State University. Corvallis, OR. | January 2017 |
| Falcy, M. 2017. Bayesian Analysis for Beginners. Two day workshop at the Oregon Chapter of the American Fisheries Society. Bend, OR. | January 2017 |
| Falcy, M. 2016. Conservation decision making: Integrating the precautionary principle with uncertainty. Oregon Chapter of the American Fisheries Society. Seaside, OR. | January 2016 |
| Falcy, M. 2015. Combining genetics and demographics in a viability model of hatchery-wild systems subject to environmental change. National Meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Portland, OR. | January 2015 |
| Falcy, M. 2014. Exploring patterns in coastal coho abundance and productivity. Oregon Chapter of the American Fisheries Society. Eugene, OR. | January 2014 |
| Falcy, M. 2014. Estimating spawner population abundance of coastal Fall Chinook: is non-random sampling optimal? Oregon Chapter of the American Fisheries Society. Eugene, OR. | January 2014 |
| Falcy, M. 2013. Population viability analysis with Bayesian state-space parameter estimation. The International Environmetrics Society. Anchorage, AK. | January 2013 |
| Falcy, M. 2013. A Bayesian meta-analytic assessment of the effect of watershed geomorphology and lithology on chinook salmon recruitment. Oregon Chapter American Fisheries Society. Bend, OR. | January 2013 |
| Falcy, M. 2012. Artificial neural networks: finding complex environmental signals or just fitting noise? Oregon Chapter of the American Fisheries Society- Forecasting Symposium. Portland, OR. | January 2012 |
| Falcy, M. 2011. Individual and population–level responses of the Alabama beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus ammobates) to environmental variation in space and time. Biannual beach mouse conference. Daphne, AL. | January 2011 |
| Falcy, M. 2010. Post-hurricane recovery and viability of the Alabama beach mouse. American Society of Mammalogists. Laramie, WY. | January 2010 |
| Falcy, M. 2009. Optimal habitat selection of predator and prey in explicit space. Iowa State University Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Spring Symposium. Ames, IA. | January 2009 |
| Bassing, S.B., D.E., Ausband, M. Mumma, M.A. Hurley, S. Thompson, and M.R. Falcy. 2024. Predator co-occurrence affected by prey and habitat more than competitor presence at multiple time scales. Idaho Chapter of the Wildlife Society, Coeur d' Alene, Idaho, USA. | March 2024 |
| Bassing, S., D. Ausband, M. Mumma, and M. Falcy. 2023. Spatial patterns of predator interactions in northern Idaho: Preliminary findings. Idaho Chapter of The Wildlife Society Annual Conference. Boise, ID. | February 2023 |
| Technical Publications | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| Spring Chinook Status Assessment. 2018. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. | Download | June 2018 |
| Scheerer, P., Falcy, M., Bangs, B., Meeuwig, M., and Clements, S. 2017. Habitat Use by Bluegills Pomoxis annularis and Oregon Chub Oregonichthys crameri in an Off-channel Habitat in the Willamette Valley. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. | Download | January 2017 |
| Rogue-South Coast Multi-Species Conservation and Management Plan. 2021. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. | December 2021 |
| Rogue Spring Chinook Salmon Conservation Plan Comprehensive Assessment and Update. 2019. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife | January 2019 |
| Power analysis: determination of sub-sample size for analysis of fish scales from coastal Chinook salmon from spawning ground surveys. 2014. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. | Download | October 2014 |
| Population Viability of Willamette River Winter Steelhead: An Assessment of the Effects of Sea Lions at Willamette Falls. 2017. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. | Download | July 2017 |
| Estimating the weighted proportion of hatchery-origin spawners, pHOSw. 2019. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. | Download | January 2019 |
| Elk River Fall Chinook: Status Assessment Update. 2020. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. | June 2020 |
| Coastal Multi-Species Conservation and Management Plan. 2014 Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. | Download | June 2014 |
| Coastal Fall Chinook Sliding Scale Bag Limits: A proposal for pre-season inland harvest management. 2019. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. | Download | March 2019 |
| Type | Citation | Publication Date |
|---|---|---|
| Software Release | https://falcy.shinyapps.io/Matrix_App/ | January 2019 |
| Software Release | <a href="https://falcy.shinyapps.io/TrojanYY/">https://falcy.shinyapps.io/TrojanYY/</a> | January 2020 |