Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units Program: Idaho
Education, Research and Technical Assistance for Managing Our Natural Resources

​Predicting a species’ distribution is fundamental to conservation, yet models developed in one region may not accurately predict occurrence in other locations. This variation can limit accuracy when species distribution models are used to predict the location of high-quality habitat in new regions. The eastern black rail was recently listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, and we need to predict the distribution of high-quality habitat to aide in conservation, monitoring, and recovery efforts. We are working with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Atlantic Coast Joint Venture to adapt range-wide habitat models and predict the location of important breeding habitats for eastern black rails along the Atlantic Coast. We are using hierarchical occupancy models and predictive Bayesian model selection (i.e., Bayesian Lasso) to develop habitat relationship models for eastern black rails in tidal wetlands, and mapping habitat quality at a fine resolution along the entire Atlantic Coast. These analyses will provide a foundation for development of range-wide monitoring protocols and adaptive habitat conservation programs for this subspecies.