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van Riper, C. III, James D. Nichols, G. Lynn Wingard, Jeffrey L. Kershner, James Cloern, Robert B. Jacobson, Robin P. White, Anthony D. McGuire, Byron K. Williams, Guy Gelfenbaum, and Carl D. Shapiro. 2014 USGS Ecosystem Research for the Next Decade: Advancing Discovery and Application in Parks and Protected Areas through Collaboration. George Wright Forum 31:129-136.
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August 2014
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Zhuang, Q., X. Zhu, Y. He, C. Prigent, J.M. Melillo, A.D. McGuire, R.G. Prinn, and D.W. Kicklighter. 2015. Influence of changes in wetland inundation extent on net fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane in northern high latitudes from 1993 to 2004. Environmental Research Letters 9, 13 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095009.
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September 2015
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Zhuang, Q., V. E. Romanovsky, and A. D. McGuire. 2005. Incorporation of a permafrost model into a large-scale ecosystem model: Evaluation of temporal and spatial scaling issues in simulating soil thermal dynamics. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 106:33, 649-33, 670.
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July 2005
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Zhuang, Q., M. Chen, K. Xu, J. Tang, E. Saikawa, Y. Lu, J.M. Melillo, R.G. Prinn and A.D. McGuire. 2013. Response of global soil consumption of atmospheric methane to changes in atmospheric climate and nitrogen deposition. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 27, 14 pages, doi:10.1002/gbc.20057.
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September 2013
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Zhuang, Q., J. M. Melillo, M. C. Sarofim, D. W. Kicklighter, A. D. McGuire, B. S. Felzer, A. Sokolov, R. G. Prinn, P. A. Steudler, and S. Hu. Published. CO2 and CH4 exchanges between land ecosystems and the atmosphere in northern high latitudes over the 21st century. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L17403, doi: 10. 1029/2006GL026972, 2006
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September 2006
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Zhuang, Q., J. M. Melillo, D. W. Kicklighter, R. G. Prinn, A. D. McGuire, P. A. Steudler, B. S. Felzer, and S. Hu. 2004. Methane fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere at northern high latitudes during the past century: A retrospective analysis with a process-based biogeochemistry model. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18:GB3010, doi:10. 1029/2004GB002239.
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October 2004
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Zhuang, Q., J. M. Melillo, A. D. McGuire, D. W. Kicklighter, R. G. Prinn, P. A. Steudler, B. S. Felzer, and S. Hu. 2007. Net emissions of CH4 and CO2 in Alaska: Implications for the region's greenhouse gas budget. Ecological Applications 17:203-212
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March 2007
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Zhuang, Q., A. D. McGuire, J. M. Melillo, J. S. Clein, R. J. Dargaville, D. W. Kicklighter, R. B. Myneni, J. Dong, V. E. Romanovsky, J. Harden, and J. E. Hobbie. 2003. Carbon cycling in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th Century: A modeling analysis of the influences of soil thermal dynamics. Tellus 55B:751-776.
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January 2003
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Zhuang, Q., A. D. McGuire, J. Harden, K. P. O'Neill, V. E. Romanovsky, and J. Yarie. 2002. Modeling soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres 107, 8147, doi:10. 1029/2001JD001244, 2002. ([printed 108(D1), 2003]
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April 2003
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Zhu, Zhiliang, and McGuire, A.D., eds. 2016. Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of Alaska. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1826, 196 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/pp1826.
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June 2016
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Zhou, X., S.A. Schroder, A.D. McGuire, and Z. Zhu. 2016. Forest inventory-based analysis and projections of forest carbon stocks and changes in Alaska coastal forests. Chapter 4 (pages 77-94) in Z. Zhu and A.D. McGuire, eds., Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of Alaska. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1826, 196 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/pp1826.
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June 2016
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Zhang, X., A. D. McGuire, and R. W. Ruess. 2006. Scaling uncertainties in estimating canopy foliar maintenance respiration for black spruce ecosystems in Alaska. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 11:147-171.
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March 2006
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Yi, S., N. Li, B. Xiang, X. Wang, B. Ye, and A.D. McGuire. 2013. Representing the effects of alpine grassland vegetation cover on the simulation of soil thermal dynamics by ecosystem models applied to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 118, 14 pages, doi:10.1002/gjrg.20093.
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September 2013
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Yi, S., K. Manies, J. Harden, and A.D. McGuire. 2009. Characteristics of organic soil in black spruce forests: Implications for the application of land surface and ecosystem models in cold regions. Geophysical Research Letters 36, L05501, 5 pages. doi: 10.1029/2008GL037014.
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March 2009
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Yi, S., A.D. McGuire, J. Harden, E. Kasischke, K. Manies, L. Hinzman, A. Liljedahl, J. Randerson, H. Liu, V. Romanovsky, S. Marchenko, and Y Kim. 2009. Interactions between soil thermal and hydrological dynamics in the response of Alaska ecosystems to fire disturbance. Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences 114, G02015, 20 pages. doi:10.1029/2008JG000841.
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May 2009
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Yi, S., A.D. McGuire, E. Kasischke, J. Harden, K. Manies, M. Mack, and M. Turetsky. 2010. A dynamic organic soil biogeochemical model for simulating the effects of wildfire on soil environmental conditions and carbon dynamics of black spruce forests. Journal of Geophysical Research 115, G04015, 15 pages, doi: 10.1029/2010JG001302.
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November 2010
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Xiao, J., Q. Zhuang, E. Liang, A.D. McGuire, A. Moody, D.W. Kicklighter, X. Shao, and J.M. Melillo. 2009. Twentieth Century droughts and their impacts on terrestrial carbon cycling in China. Earth Interactions 13(10):1-17. DOI: 10.1175/2009EI275.1
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Publisher Website
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September 2009
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Xia, J., A.D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, G. Chen, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T.J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D.J. Hayes, K. Huang. D. Ji, G. Krinner, D.P. Lettenmaier, P.A. Miller, J.C. Moore, B. Smith, T. Sueyoshi, Z. Shi, L. Yan, J. Liang, L. Jiang, Q. Zhang, and Y. Luo. 2017. Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and it vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 122:430-446, doi:10.1002/2016/JG003384.
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February 2017
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Wu, W., A. H. Lynch, S. Drobot, J. Maslanik, A. D. McGuire, and U. Hertzfeld. 2007. Comparative analysis of the Western Arctic surface climate among observations and model simulations. Earth Interactions 11(6): 24 pp.
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February 2007
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Wood, S.A., J. Beringer, L.B. Hutley, A.D. McGuire, A. Van Dijk, and M. Kilinc. 2008. Impacts of fire on forest age and runoff in mountain ash forests. Functional Plant Biology 35:483-492.
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August 2008
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Wolken, J.M., T.N. Hollingsworth, T.S. Rupp, F.S. Chapin III, S.F. Trainor, T.M Barrett, P.F. Sullivan, A.D. McGuire, E.S. Euskirchen, P.E. Hennon, E.A. Beever, J.S. Conn, L.K. Crone, D.V. D’Amore, N. Fresco, T.A. Hanley, K. Kielland, J.J. Kruse, T. Patterson, E.A.G. Schuur, D.L. Verbyla, and J. Yarie. 2011. Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska’s forest ecosystems. Ecosphere 2(11), Article 124, 35 pp., doi:10.1890/ES11-00288.1.
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November 2011
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Wang, W., A. Rinke, J.C. Moore, X. Cui, D. Ji, Q. Li, N. Zhang, C. Wang, S. Zhang, D.M. Lawrence, A.D. McGuire, W. Zhang, C. Delire, C. Koven, K. Saito, A. MacDougall, E. Burke, and B. Decharme. 2016. Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area. The Cryosphere 10:287-306, doi:10.5194/tc-287-2016.
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February 2016
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Wang, W., A. Rinke, J.C. Moore, D. Ji, X. Cui, S. Peng, D.M. Lawrence, A.D. McGuire, E.J. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T.J. Bohn, P. Ciais, C. Delire, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, G. Krinner, D.P. Lettenmaier, P.A. Miller, B. Smith, T. Sueyoshi, and A.B. Sherstiukov. Evaluation of air-soil temperature relationships simulated by land surface models during winter across the permafrost region. The Cryosphere 10:1721-1737, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016.
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August 2016
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Walsh, J. E., J. Curry, M. Fahnestock, M. C. Kennicutt II, A. D. McGuire, W. B. Rossow, M. Steele, C. J. Vorosmarty, and R. Wharton. 2001. Enhancing NASA's Contribution to Polar Science: A Review of Polar Geophysical Data Sets. National Academy Press, Washington, DC. 124 pp.
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November 2001
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Waldrop, M.P., J.W. Harden, M.R. Turetsky, D.G. Petersen, A.D. McGuire, M.J.I. Briones, A.C. Churchill, D.H. Doctor, and L.E. Pruett. 2012. Bacterial and enchytraid abundance accelerate soil carbon turnover along a lowland vegetation gradient in Alaska. Soil Biology and Biochemistry 50:188-198, doi:10.1016/j.soilbio.2012.02.032.
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September 2012
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Valentine, D. W., K. Kielland, F. S. Chapin, III, A. D. McGuire, and K. Van Cleve. 2006. Patterns of biogeochemistry in Alaskan boreal forests. Pages 241-266 in F. S. Chapin, III, M. W. Oswood, K. Van Cleve, L. A. Viereck, and D. L. Verbyla, eds. Alaska's Changing Boreal Forest. Oxford University Press, New York.
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June 2006
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Turetsky, M.R., C.C. Treat, M. Waldrop, M. Waddington, J.W. Harden, and A.D. McGuire. 2008. Short-term response of methane fluxes and methanogen activity to water table and soil warming manipulations in an Alaskan peatland. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences 113, G00A10, doi:10. 1029/2007JG000496.
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August 2008
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Turetsky, M.R., B. Bond-Lamberty, E. Euskirchen, J. Talbot, S. Frolking, A.D. McGuire, and E.-S. Tuittila. 2012. The resilience and functional role of moss in boreal and arctic ecosystems. Tansley Review. New Phytologist. In press. 196:49-67, doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2012.04254.x.
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December 2012
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Treat, C.C., S.M. Natali, J. Ernakovich, C.M. Iversen, M. Lupascu, A.D. McGuire, R.J. Norby, T.R. Chowdhury, A. Richter, H. Santruckova, C. Schadel, E.A.G. Schuur, V.L. Sloan, M.R. Turetsky, and M.P. Waldrop. 2015. A pan-Arctic synthesis of CH4 and CO2 production from anoxic soil incubations. Global Change Biology 21:2787-2803, doi:10.1111/gcb12875.
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July 2015
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Trainor, S.F., M. Calef, D. Natcher, F.S. Chapin III, A.D. McGuire, O. Huntington, P. Duffy, T.S. Rupp, L. DeWilde, M. Kwart, N. Fresco, and A.L. Lovecraft. 2009. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska. Polar Research 28:100-118.
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March 2009
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Tian, H., J. M. Melillo, D. W. Kicklighter, S. Pan, J. Liu, A. D. McGuire, and B. Moore III. 2003. Regional carbon dynamics in monsoon Asia and its implications for the global carbon cycle. Global and Planetary Change 37:201-217.
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July 2003
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Tian, H., J. M. Melillo, D. W. Kicklighter, A. D. McGuire, J. Helfrich III, B. Moore III, and C. J. Vorosmarty. 2000. Climatic and biotic controls on annual carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems. Global Ecology and Biogeography 9:315-336.
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April 2000
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Thompson, C. D., J. Beringer, F. S. Chapin III, and A. D. McGuire. 2004. Relationship of structural complexity to land-surface energy exchange along a gradient from arctic tundra to boreal forest. Journal of Vegetation Science 15:397-406.
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March 2004
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Thompson, C. C., A. D. McGuire, J. S. Clein, F. S. Chapin III, and J. Beringer. 2005. Net carbon exchange across the arctic tundra-boreal forest transition in Alaska 1981-2000. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 11:805-827.
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October 2005
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Stow, D., A. Hope, A. D. McGuire, D. Verbyla, J. Gamon, K. Huemmrich, S. Houston, C. Racine, M. Sturm, K. Tape, K. Yoshikawa, L. Hinzman, C. Tweedie, B. Noyle, C. Silapaswan, D. Douglas, B. Griffith, G. Jia, H. Epstein, D. Walker, S. Daeschner, A. Petersen, L. Zhou, and R. Myneni. 2004. Remote sensing of vegetation and land-cover changes in Arctic tundra ecosystems. Remote Sensing of Environment 89:281-308.
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September 2004
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Sitch, S., A. D. McGuire, J. Kimball, N. Gedney, J. Gamon, R. Engstrom, A. Wolf, Q. Zhuang, J. Clein, and K. C. McDonald. 2007. Assessing the carbon balance of circumpolar arctic tundra using remote sensing and process modeling. Ecological Applications 17:213-234.
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March 2007
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Silapaswan, Q., D. Verbyla, and A. D. McGuire. 2001. Land cover change on the Seward Peninsula: The use of remote sensing to evaluate potential influences of climate change on historical vegetation dynamics. Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing 5:542-554.
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July 2001
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Seiser, P. E., L. K. Duffy, A. D. McGuire, D. D. Roby, G. Golet, and M. A. Litzow. 2000. Comparison of pigeon guillemot, Cepphus columba, blood parameters from oiled and unoiled areas of Alaska eight years after the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Marine Pollution Bulletin 40:152-164.
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July 2000
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Scott, J.M., B. Griffith, R.S. Adamcik, D.M. Ashe, B. Czech, R.L. Fischman, P. Gonzalez, J.J. Lawler, A.D. McGuire, and A. Pidgorna. National Wildlife Refuges. 2008. National Wildlife Refuges. Pages 5-1 to 5-100 in: Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [S.H. Julius and J.M West (eds. ), J.S. Baron, B. Griffith, L.A. Joyce, P. Kareiva, B.D. Keller, M.A. Palmer, C.H. Peterson, and J. M. Scott (authors). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.
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September 2008
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Schuur, E.A.G., B.W. Abbott, W.B. Bowden, V. Brovkin, P. Camill, J.P. Canadell, J.P. Chanton, F.S. Chapin III, T.R. Christensen, P. Ciais, P.M. Crill, B.T. Crosby, C.I. Czimczik, G. Grosse, J. Harden, D.J. Hayes, G. Hugelius, J.D. Jastrow, J.B. Jones, T. Kleinin, C.D. Koven, G. Krinner, P. Kuhry, D.M. Lawrence, A.D. McGuire, S.M. Natali, J.A. O’Donnell, C.L. Ping, W.J. Riley, A. Rinke, V.E. Romanovsky, A.B.K. Sannel, C. Schadel, K. Schaefer, J. Sky, Z.M. Subin, C. Tarnocai, M. Turetsky, M. Waldrop, K.M. Walter-Anthony, K.P. Wickland, C.J. Wilson, and S.A. Zimov. 2013. Expert assessment of potential permafrost carbon feedback to climate change. Climatic Change 119:359-374. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7.
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July 2013
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Schuur, E.A.G., A.D. McGuire, V. Romanovsky, C. Schaedel, and M. Mack. 2018. Chapter 11. Arctic and boreal carbon. In Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report [Cavallaro, N., G. Shrestha, R. Birdsey, M.A. Mayes, R.G. Najjar, S.C. Reed, P. Romero-Lankao, and Z. Zhu (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 428-468, https://doi.org/10.7930/SOCCR2.2018.Ch11.
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November 2018
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Schuur, E.A.G., A.D. McGuire, C. Schadel, G. Grosse, J.W. Harden, D.J. Hayes, G. Hugelius, C.D, Koven, P. Kuhry, D.M. Lawrence, S.M. Natali, D. Olefeldt, V.E. Romanovsky, K. Schaefer, M.R. Turetsky, C. Treat, J.E. Vonk. 2015. Climate Change and the Permafrost Carbon Feedback. Nature 520:171-179. doi:10.1038/nature14338.
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April 2015
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Schimel, D., J. Mellilo, H. Tian, A. D. McGuire, D. Kicklighter, T. Kittel, N. Rosenbloom, S. Running, P. Thornton, D. Ojima, W. Parton, R. Kelly, M. Sykes, R. Neilson, and B. Rizzo. 2000. Carbon storage by the natural and agricultural ecosystems of the US (1980-1993). Science 287:2004-2006.
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April 2000
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Schimel, D, D.R. Strong, A.M. Ellison, D.P.C. Peters, S. Silver, E.A. Johnson, J. Belnap, A.T. Classen, T.E. Essington, A.O. Finley, B.D. Inouye, E.H. Stanley, and the Editorial Boards of Ecology, Ecological Applications, Ecological Monographs, Ecosphere, and Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment (including A.D. McGuire). 2014. Editors are Editors, Not Oracles. Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 95:342-346.
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October 2014
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Rupp, T. S., X. Chen, M. Olson, and A. D. McGuire. 2007. Sensitivity of simulated boreal fire dynamics to uncertainties in climate drivers. Earth Interactions 11, Paper 3. 21 pp.
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February 2007
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Romanovsky, V., K. Isaksen, D. Drozdov, O. Anisimov, A. Instanes, M. Leibman, A.D. McGuire, N. Shiklomanov, S. Smith, D. Walker, and contributing authors. 2017. Changing permafrost and its impacts. Chapter 3 in Snow, Water, Ice, and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) 2017. Pages 65-102. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway.
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November 2017
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Robertson, G.P., S.L. Collins, D.R. Foster, N. Brokaw, H.W. Ducklow, T.L Gragson, C. Gries, S.K. Hamilton, A.D. McGuire, J.C. Moore, E.H. Stanley, R.B. Waide, and M.W. Williams. 2012. Long Term Ecological Research in a Human-Dominated World. BioScience 62:342-353.
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April 2012
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Riordan, B., D. Verbyla, and A. D. McGuire. 2006. Shrinking ponds in subarctic Alaska based on the 1950-2002 remotely sensed images. Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences.
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January 2006
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Rawlins, M., A.D. McGuire, J.S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T.J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D.P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J.C. Moore, B. Smith13, T. Sueyoshi. 2015. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across northern Eurasia. Biogeosciences 12:4385-4405. doi:10.5194/bg-12-1-2015.
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July 2015
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Prentice, I. C., G. D. Farquhar, M. J. R. Fasham, M. L. Goulden, M. Heimann, V. J. Jaramillo, H. S. Kheshgi, C. LeQuere, R. J. Scholes, D. W. R. Wallace, and contributing authors (including A. D. McGuire). 2001. The carbon cycle and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Pages 183-237 in J. T. Houghton et al., eds. Climate Change 2001: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.
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October 2001
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Potter, C., S. Wang, N. T. Nikolov, A. D. McGuire, J. Liu, A. W. King, J. S. Kimball, R. F. Grant, S. E. Frolking, J. S. Clein, J. M. Chen, and J. S. Amthor. 2001. Comparison of boreal ecosystem model sensitivity to variability in climate and forest site parameters. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres 106:33, 671-33, 688.
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December 2001
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Post, E., M.C. Forchhammer, M.S. Bret-Harte, T.V. Callaghan, T.R. Christensen, B. Elberling, A.D. Fox, O. Gilg, D.S. Hik, T.T. Hoye, R.A. Ims, E. Jeppesen, D.R. Klein, J. Madsen, A.D. McGuire, et al. 2009. Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change. Science 325:1355-1358.
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Publisher Website
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September 2009
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Perez-Garcia, J., L. A. Joyce, and A. D. McGuire. 2002. Integrated ecological economic assessments at the global scale: Lessons learned and temporal uncertainties. Forest Ecology and Management 162:105-115.
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July 2002
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Perez-Garcia, J., L. A. Joyce, A. D. McGuire, and X. Xiao. 2002. Impacts of emission controls on the global forest sector. Climatic Change 54:439-461.
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July 2002
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Peng, S., P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A.D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T.J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D.P. Lettenmaier, P.A. Miller, J.C. Moore, B. Smith, T. Sueyoshi. 2016. Simulated high-latitude soil thermal dynamics during the past four decades. The Cryosphere 10:179-192, doi:10.5194/tc-10-179-2016.
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January 2016
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Pastick, N.J., P. Duffy, H. Genet, T.S. Rupp, B.K. Wylie, K.D. Johnson, M.T. Jorgenson, N. Bliss, A.D. McGuire, E.E. Jafarov, and J.F. Knight. 2017. Historical and projected trends in landscape drivers affecting carbon dynamics in Alaska. Ecological Applications 27:1383-1402, doi:10.1002/eap.1538.
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July 2017
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Parmentier, F.-J.W., W. Zhang, Y. Mi, X. Zhu, J. van Huissteden, D.J. Hayes, Q. Zhuang, T.R. Christensen, and A.D. McGuire. 2015. Rising methane emissions from northern wetlands associated with sea ice decline. Geophysical Research Letters 42:7214-7222, doi:10.1002/2015GL065013.
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October 2015
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Parmentier, F.-J.W., T.R. Christensen, L.L. Sorensen, S. Rysgaard, A.D. McGuire, P.A. Miller, and D.A. Walker. 2013. The impact of lower sea ice extent on arctic greenhouse gas exchange. Nature Climate Change 3:195-202. doi:10.1038/nclimate1784.
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March 2013
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Pan, Y., R.A. Birdsey, J. Fang, R. Houghton, P.E. Kauppi, W.A. Kurz, O.L. Phillips, A. Shvidenko, S.L. Lewis, J.G. Canadell, P. Ciais, R.B. Jackson, S. Pacala, A.D. McGuire, S. Piao, A. Rautiainen, S. Sitch, and D. Hayes. 2011. A large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forests. Science 333:988-993, doi:10.1126/science.1201609.
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August 2011
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Pan, Y., A. D. McGuire, J. M. Melillo, D. W. Kicklighter, S. Sitch, and I. C. Prentice. 2002. A biogeochemistry-based successional model and its application along a moisture gradient in the continental United States. Journal of Vegetation Science 13:369-380.
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July 2002
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Pan, Y. -D., J. M. Melillo, D. W. Kicklighter, X. -M. Xiao, and A. D. McGuire. 2001. Modeling structural and functional responses of terrestrial ecosystems in China to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2. Acta Phytoecologica Sinica 25(2):175-189.
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April 2001
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O’Donnell, J.A., M.T. Jorgenson, J.W. Harden, A.D. McGuire, M.Z. Kanevskiy, and K.P. Wickland. 2012. The effects of permafrost thaw on soil hydrologic, thermal and carbon dynamics in an Alaskan peatland. Ecosystems 15:213-229. DOI: 10.1007/s10021-011-9504-0.
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March 2012
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O’Donnell, J.A., J.W. Harden, A.D. McGuire, and V.E. Romanovsky. 2011. Exploring the sensitivity of soil carbon dynamics to climate change, fire disturbance and permafrost thaw in a black spruce ecosystem. Biogeosciences 8 (1367-1382).
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Publisher Website
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May 2011
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O’Donnell, J.A., J.W. Harden, A.D. McGuire, M.Z. Kanevskiy, M.T. Jorgenson, and X. Xu. 2011. The effect of fire and permafrost interactions on soil carbon accumulation in an upland black spruce ecosystem of interior Alaska: Implications for post-thaw carbon loss. Global Change Biology 17:1461-1474, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02358.x.
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January 2011
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Overland, J., J. Calder, F. Fetterer, A. D. McGuire, J. Morison, J. Richter-Menge, N. Soreide, and J. Walsh. 2003. SEARCH Workshop on Large-Scale Atmosphere/Cryosphere Observations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84:1077-1081.
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August 2003
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Olefeldt, D., S. Goswami, G. Grosse, D. Hayes, G. Hugelius, P. Kuhry, A.D. McGuire, V.E. Romanovsky, A.B.K. Sannel, E.A.G. Schuur, and M.R. Turetsky. 2016. Circumpolar distribution and carbon storage of thermokarst landscapes. Nature Communications 7:13043, 11 pages, doi:10.1038/ncomms13043.
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October 2016
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Olefeldt, D., M.R. Turetsky, P.M. Crill, and A.D. McGuire. 2013. Environmental and physical controls on northern high latitude methane fluxes across permafrost zones. Global Change Biology 19:589-603. doi:10.1111/gcb.12071.
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February 2013
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Olefeldt, D., E.S. Euskirchen, J. Harden, E. Kane, A.D. McGuire, M.P. Waldrop, and M.R. Turetsky. 2017. A decade of boreal rich fen greenhouse gas fluxes in response to natural and experimental water table variability. Global Change Biology 23:2428-2440, doi:10.1111/gcb.13612.
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June 2017
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O'Donnell, J.A., V.E. Romanovsky, J.W. Harden, and A.D. McGuire. 2009. The effect of moisture content on the thermal conductivity of moss and organic soil horizons from black spruce ecosystems in interior Alaska. Soil Science 174(12):646-651.
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Publisher Website
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December 2009
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Myers-Smith, I.H., J.W. Harden, M. Wilmking, C.C. Fuller, A.D. McGuire, and F.S. Chapin III. 2008. Wetland succession in a permafrost collapse: Interactions between fire and thermokarst. Biogeosciences 5:1273-1286.
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September 2008
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Myers-Smith, I.H., A.D. McGuire, J.W. Harden, and F.S. Chapin III. 2007. Influence of disturbance on carbon exchange in a permafrost collapse and adjacent burned forest. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, G04017, doi:10.1029/2007JG000423
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December 2007
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Mishra, U., J.D. Jastrow, R. Matamala, G. Hugelius, C.D. Koven, J.W. Harden, C.L. Ping, G.J. Michaelson, Z. Fan, R.M. Miller, A.D. McGuire, C. Tarnocai, P. Kuhry, W.J. Riley, K. Schaefer, E.A.G. Schuur, M.T. Jorgenson, and L.D. Hinzman. 2013. Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: A review of recent progress and remaining challenges. Environmental Research Letters 8, 9 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035020.
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July 2013
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Melvin, A.M., M.C. Mack, J.F. Johnstone, A.D. McGuire, H. Genet, and E.A.G. Schuur. 2015. Differences ecosystem carbon distribution linked to forest tree species composition in mid-successional boreal forest. Ecosystems 18:1472-1488, doi:10.1007/s10021-015-9912-7.
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December 2015
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Melvin, A.M., G. Celis, J.F. Johnstone, A.D. McGuire, H. Genet, E.A.G. Schuur, T.S. Rupp, and M.C. Mack. 2018. Fuel-reduction alters plant composition, carbon and nitrogen pools, and permafrost thaw in Alaskan boreal forest. Ecological Applications 28:149-161, doi:10.1002/eap.1636.
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January 2018
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McGuire, A.D., T.S. Rupp, T. Kurkowski, and S. Stackpoole. 2016. Introduction. Chapter 1 (pages 5-16) in Z. Zhu and A.D. McGuire, eds., Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of Alaska. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1826, 196 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/pp1826.
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June 2016
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McGuire, A.D., T.S. Rupp, A. Breen, E.S. Euskirchen, S. Marchenko, V. Romanovsky, A. Bennett, W.R. Bolton, T. Carman, H. Genet, T. Kurkowski, M. Lara, D. Nicolsky, R. Rutter, & K. Timm. (2016). Final Report: Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Project. Fairbanks, AK; Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning. 71 pages. doi: http://doi.org/10.21429/C9RP43.
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December 2016
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McGuire, A.D., T.R. Christensen, D. Hayes, A. Heroult, E. Euskirchen, J.S. Kimball, C. Koven, P. Lefleur, P.A. Miller, W. Oechel, P. Peylin, M. Williams, and Y. Yi. 2012. An assessment of the carbon balance of Arctic tundra: Comparisons among observations, process models, and atmospheric inversions. Biogeosciences 9:3185-3204, doi:10.5194/bg-9-3185-2012.
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August 2012
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McGuire, A.D., R.W. Ruess, A. Lloyd, J. Yarie, J.S. Clein, and G. Juday. 2010. Vulnerability of white spruce tree growth in interior Alaska in response to climate variability: Dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40:1197-1209. doi:10.1139/X09-206.
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June 2010
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McGuire, A.D., R.W. Macdonald, E.A.G. Schuur, J.W. Harden, P. Kuhry, D.J. Hayes, T.R. Christensen, and M. Heimann. 2010. The carbon budget of the northern cryosphere region. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2:231-236. doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2010.05.003
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Publisher Website
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October 2010
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McGuire, A.D., L.G. Anderson, T.R. Christensen, S. Dallimore, L. Guo, D.J. Hayes, M. Heimann, T.D. Lorenson, R.W. Macdonald, and N. Roulet. 2009. Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change. Ecological Monographs 79(4):523-555.
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October 2009
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McGuire, A.D., L.D. Hinzman, J. Walsh, J. Hobbie, and M. Sturm. Introduction to "Trajectory of the Arctic as an Integrated System". Ecological Applications. 23:1743-1744.
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December 2013
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McGuire, A.D., J. Walsh, J. Kimball, J. Clein, S. Euskirchen, S. Drobot, U. Herzfeld, J. Maslanik, R. Lammers, M. Rawlins, C. Vorosmarty, T. Rupp, W. Wu, and M. Calef. 2008. The Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE): Overview and synthesis. Earth Interactions 12, Paper 7, 13 pages. doi:10.1175/2008EI239.1.
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December 2008
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McGuire, A.D., H. Genet, Z. Lyu, N. Pastick, S. Stackpoole, R. Birdsey, D. D’Amore, Y. He, T.S. Rupp, R. Striegl, B.K. Wylie, X. Zhou, Q. Zhuang, and Z. Zhu. 2018. Assessing historical and projected carbon balance of Alaska: A synthesis of results and policy/management implications. Ecological Applications 28:1396-1412, doi:10.1002/eap.1768.
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September 2018
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McGuire, A.D., H. Genet, Y. He, S. Stackpoole, D.V. D’Amore, T.S. Rupp, B.K. Wylie, X. Zhou, and Z. Zhu. 2016. Alaska Carbon Balance. Chapter 9 (pages 189-196) in Z. Zhu and A.D. McGuire, eds., Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of Alaska. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1826, 196 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/pp1826.
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June 2016
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McGuire, A.D., F.S. Chapin III, and R.W. Ruess, Special Editors. 2010. The Dynamics of Change in Alaska’s Boreal Forests: Resilience and Vulnerability in Response to Climate Warming. Foreword. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40:1195-1196.
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July 2010
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McGuire, A.D., D.M. Lawrence, C. Koven J.S. Clein, E. Burke, G. Chen, E. Jafarov, A.H. MacDougall, S. Marchenko, D. Nicolsky, S. Peng, A. Rinke, P. Ciais, I. Gouttevin, D.J. Hayes, D. Ji, G. Krinner, J.C. Moore, V.E. Romanovsky, C. Schädel, K. Schaefer, E.A.G. Schuur, and Q. Zhuang. 2018. The dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115:3882-3887, doi:10.1073/pnas.1719903115.
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March 2018
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McGuire, A.D., D.J. Hayes, D.W. Kicklighter, M. Manizza, Q. Zhuang, M. Chen, M.J. Follows, K.R. Gurney, J.W. McClelland, J.M. Melillo, B.J. Peterson, and R. Prinn. 2010. An analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006. Tellus 62B:455-474. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00497.x
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October 2010
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McGuire, A.D., C. Koven, D.M. Lawrence, J.S. Clein, J. Xia, C. Beer, E. Burke, G. Chen, X. Chen, C. Delire, E. Jafarov, A.H. MacDougall, S. Marchenko, D. Nicolsky, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T.J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, A. Ekici, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D.J. Hayes, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D.P. Lettenmaier, P.A. Miller, J.C. Moore, V. Romanovsky, C. Schadel, K. Schaefer, E.A.G. Schuur, B. Smith, T. Sueyoshi, and Q. Zhuang. 2016. Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 30:1015-1037, doi:10.1002/2016GB005405.
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August 2016
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McGuire, A.D., B.P. Kelly, and L. Sheffield Guy. 2017. Resolving a methane mystery in the Arctic. Eos 98, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017EO076733.
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July 2017
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McGuire, A.D., B.P. Kelly, L. Sheffield Guy, H.V. Wiggins, L. Bruhwiler, J. Frederick, H. Huntington, R. Jackson, R. Macdonald, C. Miller, D. Olefeldt, E.A.G. Schuur, and M.R. Turetsky. 2017. Final Report: International Workshop to Reconcile Methane Budgets in the Northern Permafrost Region. Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS), Fairbanks, Alaska. 14 pages. Available through the International Arctic Research Center (IARC) Data Archive at http://climate.iarc.uaf.edu/geonetwork/srv/en/main.home?uuid=e436b77a-b0db-44c1-bd18-260c5b076b43.
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May 2017
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McGuire, A.D., B.K. Wylie, D.V. D’Amore, X. Zhou, T.S. Rupp, H. Genet, Y. He, S. Stackpoole, and Z. Zhu. 2016. Executive Summary-Baseline and Projected Future Carbon Storage and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of Alaska. Pages 1-3 in Z. Zhu and A.D. McGuire, eds., Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of Alaska. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1826, 196 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/pp1826.
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June 2016
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McGuire, A.D. 2013. Ecosystem Element Cycling. In: Encyclopedia of Environmetrics 2nd Edition (eds. El-Shaarawi A.H., Piegorsch W.W.). John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester, UK, pp. 779-783. doi 10.1002/9780470057339.vae011.pub2.
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December 2012
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McGuire, A. D., and M. A. Apps. 2005. Foreword: Climate-Disturbance Interactions in Boreal Forest Ecosystems. Special Issue of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. DOI:10/1007/s11027-005-9021-6.
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February 2006
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McGuire, A. D., and F. S. Chapin, III. 2006. Climate feedbacks in the Alaskan boreal forest. Pages 309-322 in F. S. Chapin, III, M. W. Oswood, K. Van Cleve, L. A. Viereck, and D. L. Verbyla, eds. Alaska's Changing Boreal Forest. Oxford University Press, New York.
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June 2006
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McGuire, A. D., S. Sitch, J. S. Clein, R. Dargaville, G. Esser, J. Foley, M. Heimann, F. Joos, J. Kaplan, D. W. Kicklighter, R. A. Meier, J. M. Melillo, B. Moore III, I. C. Prentice, N. Ramankutty, T. Reichenau, A. Schloss, H. Tian, L. J. Williams, and U. Wittenberg. 2001. Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: Analyses of CO2, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15:183-206.
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March 2001
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McGuire, A. D., M. Sturm, and F. S. Chapin III. 2003. Arctic Transitions in the Land-Atmosphere System (ATLAS): Background, objectives, results, and future directions. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres 108(D2), 8166, doi:10. 1029/2002JD002367.
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September 2003
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McGuire, A. D., M. Apps, F. S. Chapin III, R. Dargaville, M. D. Flannigan, E. S. Kasischke, D. Kicklighter, J. Kimball, W. Kurz, D. J. McRae, K. McDonald, J. Melillo, R. Myneni, B. J. Stocks, D. L. Verbyla, and Q. Zhuang. 2004. Land cover disturbances and feedback to the climate system in Canada and Alaska. Chapter 9 (pp. 139-161) in G. Gutman, A. C. Janetos, C. O. Justice, E. F. Moran, J. F. Mustard, R. R. Rindfuss, D. Skole, B. L. Turner II, and M. A. Cochrane, eds. Land Change Science: Observing, Monitoring, and Understanding Trajectories of Change on the Earth's Surface. Kluwer Academic Press, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
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November 2004
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McGuire, A. D., J. S. Clein, J. M. Melillo, D. W. Kicklighter, R. A. Meier, C. J. Vorosmarty, and M. C. Serreze. 2000. Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: The sensitivity of pan-Arctic carbon storage to temporal and spatial variation in climate. Global Change Biology 6:S141-S159.
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December 2000
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McGuire, A. D., J. M. Melillo, J. T. Randerson, W. J. Parton, M. Heimann, R. A. Meier, J. S. Clein, D. W. Kicklighter, and W. Sauf. 2000. Modeling the effects of snowpack on heterotrophic respiration across northern temperate and high latitude regions: Comparison with measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide in high latitudes. Biogeochemistry 48:91-114.
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January 2000
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McGuire, A. D., F. S. Chapin III, J. E. Walsh, and C. Wirth. 2006. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 31:61-91.
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October 2006
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McGuire, A. D., F. S. Chapin III, C. Wirth, M. Apps, J. Bhatti, T. Callaghan, T. R. Christensen, J. S. Clein, M. Fukuda, T. Maximov, A. Onuchin, A. Shvidenko, and E. Vaganov. 2007. Responses of high latitude ecosystems to global change: Potential consequences for the climate system. Pages 297-310 in J. G. Canadell, D. E. Pataki, and L. F. Pitelka, eds. Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World. The IGBP Series, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelburg.
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January 2007
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McGuire, A. D., C. Wirth, M. Apps, J. Beringer, J. Clein, H. Epstein, D. W. Kicklighter, J. Bhatti, F. S. Chapin III, B. deGroot, D. Efremov, W. Eugster, M. Fukuda, T. Gower, L. Hinzman, B. Huntley, G. J. Jia, E. Kasischke, J. Melillo, V. Romanovsky, A. Shvidenko, E. Vaganov, and D. Walker. 2002. Environmental variation, vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water/energy exchange in high latitudes. Journal of Vegetation Science 13:301-314.
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September 2002
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McGuire, A. D. 2002. Ecosystem element cycling. Pages 614-618 in A. H. El-Shaarawi and W. W. Piegorsch, eds. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, Volume 2. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester.
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July 2002
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McConnell, N.A., M.R. Turetsky, A.D.McGuire, E.S. Kane, M.P. Waldrop, and J.W. Harden. 2013. Controls on ecosystem and root respiration across a permafrost and wetland gradient in interior Alaska. Environmental Research Letters, 8, 11 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045029.
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December 2013
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Maier, J. A. K., J. M. Ver Hoef, A. D. McGuire, R. T. Bowyer, L. Saperstein, and H. A. Maier. 2005. Distribution and density of moose in relation to landscape characteristics: Effects of scale. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35:2233-2243.
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October 2005
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Magness, D.R., J.M. Morton, F. Huettmann, F.S. Chapin III, and A.D. McGuire. 2011. A climate-change adaptation framework to reduce continental-scale vulnerability across conservation reserves. Ecosphere 2, Article 112, 23 pages, doi:10.1890/ES11-00200.1
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October 2011
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Lyu, Z., H. Genet, Y. He, Q. Zhuang, A.D. McGuire, A. Bennett, A. Breen, J. Clein, E.S. Euskirchen, K. Johnson, T. Kurkowski, N.J. Pastick, T.S. Rupp, B.K. Wylie, and Z. Zhu. 2018. The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics in wetland ecosystems of Alaska. Ecological Applications 28:1377-1395, doi:10.1002/eap.1755.
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September 2018
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Luo, Y., A. Ahlstrom, S.D. Allison, N.H. Batjes, V. Brovkin, N. Carvalhais, A. Chappell, P. Ciais, E.A. Davidson, A. Finzi, K. Georgiou, B. Guenet, O. Hararuk, J.W. Harden, Y. He, F. Hopkins, L. Jiang, C. Koven, R.B. Jackson, C.D. Jones, M.J. Lara, J. Liang, A.D. McGuire, W. Parton, C. Peng, J.T. Randerson, A. Salazar, C.A. Sierra, M.J. Smith, H. Tian, K.E.O. Todd-Brown, M. Torn, K.J. van Groenigen, Y.P. Wang, T.O. West, Y. Wei, W.R. Wieder, J. Xia, X. Xu, X. Xu, and T. Zhou. 2016. Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 30:40-56, doi:10.1002/2015GB005239.
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January 2016
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Liu, S., B. Bond-Lamberty, J.A. Hicke, R. Vargas, S. Zhao, J. Chen, S.L. Edburg, Y. Hu, J. Liu, A.D. McGuire, J. Xiao, R. Keane, W. Yuan, J. Tang, Y. Luo, C. Potter, and J. Oeding. 2011. Simulating the impacts of disturbances on forest carbon cycling in North America: Processes, data, models, and challenges. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 116, G00K08, doi:10.1029/2010JG001585.
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November 2011
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Liang, J., T.W. Crowther, N. Picard, S. Wiser, M. Zhou, G. Alberti, E.-D. Schulze, A.D. McGuire, F. Bozzato, H. Pretzsch, S. de-Miguel, A. Paquette, B. Herault, M. Scherer-Lorenzen, C.B. Barrett, H.B. Glick, G.M. Hengeveld, G.-J. Nabuurs, S. Pfautsch, H. Viana, A.C. Bibrans, C. Ammer, P. Schall, D. Verbyla, N. Tchbakova, M. Fischer, J.V. Watson, H.Y.H. Chen, X. Lei, M.-J. Schelhaas, H. Lu, D. Gianelle, E.I. Parfenova, C. Salas, E. Lee, B. Lee, H.S. Kim, H. Bruelheide, D.A. Coomes, D. Piotto, T. Sunderland, B. Schmid, S. Gourlet-Fleury, B. Sonke, R. Tavani, J. Zhu, S. Brandl, J. Vayreda, F. Kitahara, E.B. Searle, V.J. Neldner, M.R. Ngugi, C. Baraloto, L. Frizzera, R. Balazy, J. Oleksyn, T. Zawila-Niedzwiecki, O. Bouriaud, F. Bussotti, L. Finer, B. Jaroszewicz, T. Jucker, F. Valladares, A.M. Jagodzinski, P.L. Peri, C. Gonmadje, W. Marthy, T. O’Brien, E.H. Martin, A. Marshall, F. Rovero, R. Bitariho, P.A. Niklaus, P. Alvarez-Loayza, N. Chamuya, R. Valencia, F. Mortier, V. Wortel, N.L. Engone-Obiang, L.V. Ferreira, D.E. Odeke, R.M. Vasquez, and P.B. Reich. 2016. Positive biodiversity-productivity relationship predominant in global forests. Science 354:6309, 12 pages, doi:10.1126/science.aaf8957.
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October 2016
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Liang, J., M. Zhou, P.C. Tobin, A.D. McGuire, and P.B. Reich. 2015. Biodiversity influences plant productivity through niche efficiency. Proceedings of the National Acadamy of Sciences 112:5738-5743. doi:10.1073/pnas.1409853112.
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May 2015
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Lara, M.J., I. Nitze, G. Grosse, and A.D. McGuire. 2018. Tundra landform and productivity trend maps for the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. Scientific Data 5: Paper 180058, 10 pages, doi:10.1038/sdata.2018.58.
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April 2018
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Lara, M.J., I. Nitze, G. Grosse, P. Martin, and A.D. McGuire. 2018. Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions. Scientific Reports, 8, paper 2345, 10 pages, doi:10.1038/s41598-018-20692-8.
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February 2018
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Lara, M.J., H. Genet, A.D. McGuire, E.S. Euskirchen, Y. Zhang, D.R.N. Brown, M.T. Jorgenson, V. Romanovsky, A. Breen, and W.R. Bolton. 2016. Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland. Global Change Biology 22:816-829, doi:10.1111/gcb.13124.
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February 2016
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Lara, M.J., A.D. McGuire, E.S. Euskirchen, C.E. Tweedie, K.M. Hinkel, A.N. Skurikhin, V.E. Romanovsky, G. Grosse, W.R. Bolton, and H. Genet. 2015. Polygonal tundra geomorphological change in response to warming alters future CO2 and CH4 flux on the Barrow Peninsula. Global Change Biology 21:1634-1651. doi.10.1111/gcb.12757.
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March 2015
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Krankina, O.N., D. Pflugmacher, D. Hayes, A.D. McGuire, M. Hansen, T. Hame, V. Elsakov, and P. Nelson. 2011. Vegetation cover in the Eurasian Arctic: Distribution, monitoring, and role in carbon cycling. Chapter 5 in Eurasian Arctic Land Cover and Land Use in a Changing Climate (edited by G. Gutman and A. Reissell). Springer, New York. Pp. 79-108.
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January 2011
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Koven, C.D., E.A.G. Schuur, C. Schadel, T.J. Bohn, E.J. Burke, G. Chen, X. Chen, P. Ciais, G. Grosse, J.W. Harden, D.J. Hayes, G. Hugelius, E.E. Jafarov, G. Krinner, P. Kuhry, D.M. Lawrence, A.H. MacDougall, S.S. Marchenko, A.D. McGuire, S.M. Natali, D.J. Nicolsky, D. Olefeldt, S. Peng, V.E. Romanovsky, K.M. Schaefer, J. Strauss, C.C. Treat, and M. Turetsky. 2015. A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the pernmafrost carbon-climate feedback. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 373:20140423, 23 pages, doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0423.
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October 2015
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Klapstein, S.J., M.R. Turetsky, A.D. McGuire, J.W. Harden, C.I. Czimczik, X. Xu, J.P. Chanton, and J.M. Waddington. 2014. Controls on methane released through ebullition from peatlands affected by permafrost degradation. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 119:418-431, doi:10.1002/2013/G002441.
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May 2014
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Kittel, T. G. F., N. A. Rosenbloom, J. A. Royle, C. Daly, W. P. Gibson, H. H. Fisher, P. Thornton, D. N. Yates, S. Aulenbach, C. Kaufman, R. McKeown, D. Bachelet, D. S. Schimel, and VEMAP2 Participants (including A. David McGuire). 2004. The VEMAP Phase 2 Bioclimatic Database I: A gridded historical (20th Century) climate dataset for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous United States. Climate Research 27:151-170.
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October 2004
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King, A.W., R.J. Andres, K.J. Davis, M. Hafer, D.J. Hayes, D.N. Huntzinger, B. de Jong, W.A. Kurz, A.D. McGuire, R. Vargas, Y. Wei, T.O. West, and C.W. Woodall. 2015. North America’s net terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990-2009. Biogeosciences 12:399-414. doi:10.5194/bg-12-399-2015.
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January 2015
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Kimball, J. S., M. Zhao, A. D. McGuire, F. A. Heinsch, J. Clein, M. Calef, W. M. Jolly, S. Kang, S. E. Euskirchen, K. C. McDonald, and S. W. Running. 2007. Recent climate-driven increases in vegetation productivity for the Western Arctic: Evidence of an acceleration of the northern terrestrial carbon cycle. Earth Interactions 11, Paper 4. 30 pp.
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February 2007
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Kicklighter, D.W., D.J. Hayes, J.W. McClelland, B.J. Peterson, A.D. McGuire, and J.M. Melillo. In press. Insights and issues with simulating terrestrial DOC loading of arctic river networks. Ecological Applications 23:1817-1836.
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December 2013
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Kicklighter, D. W., M. Bruno, S. Donges, G. Esser, M. Heimann, J. Helfrich, F. Ift, F. Joos, J. Kaduk, G. H. Kohlmaier, A. D. McGuire, J. M. Melillo, R. Meyer, B. Moore III, A. Nadler, I. C. Prentice, W. Sauf, S. Sitch, U. Wittnenberg, and G. Wurth. 1999. A first-order analysis of the potential role of CO2 fertilization to affect the global carbon budget: A comparison of four terrestrial biosphere models. Tellus 51B:343-366.
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July 1999
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Kelly, R., H. Genet, A.D. McGuire, and F.S. Hu. 2016. Paleodata-informed modeling of large carbon losses from recent burning of boreal forests. Nature Climate Change 6:79-82, doi:10.1038/nclimate2832.
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January 2016
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Kasischke, E.S., D. Verbyla, T.S. Rupp, A.D. McGuire, K.A. Murphy, J.L. Allen, E.E. Hoy, R. Jandt, P. Duffy, M. Calef, and M.R. Turetsky. 2010. Alaska’s changing fire regime – Implications for the vulnerability of its boreal forests. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40:1313-1324. doi:10.1139/X10-098.
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Publisher Website
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June 2010
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Karl, T.R., J.M. Melillo, T.C. Peterson, D.M. Anderson, D.F. Boesch, V. Burkett, L.M. Carter, S.J. Cohen, N.B. Grimm, J.L. Hatfield, K. Hayhoe, A. Janetos, J.A. Kaye, J. Lawrimore, J. McCarthy, A.D. McGuire, E. Miles, E. Mills, J.T. Overpeck, J. Patz, R. Pulwarthy, B. Santer, M.J. Savonis, H.G. Schwartz, E. Shea, J. Stone, B.H. Udall, J. Walsh, M.F. Wehner, T.J. Wilbanks, and D. Wuebbles. 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: A State of Knowledge Report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Cambridge University Press. New York. 188 pages.
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June 2009
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Kaplan, J. O., N. H. Bigelow, I. C. Prentice, S. P. Harrison, P. J. Bartlein, T. R. Christensen, W. Cramer, N. V. Matveyeva, A. D. McGuire, D. F. Murray, V. Y. Razzhivin, B. Smith, D. A. Walker, P. M. Anderson, A. A. Andreev, L. B. Brubaker, M. E. Edwards, and A. V. Lozhkin. 2003. Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections. Journal of Geophysical Research 108(D19), 8171, doi:10. 1029/2002JD002559, 2003.
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October 2003
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Kane, E.S., M.R. Turetsky, J.W. Harden, A.D. McGuire, and J.M. Waddington. 2010. Seasonal ice and hydrologic controls on dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen concentrations in a boreal-rich fen. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 115, G04012, 15 pages, doi:10.1029/2010JG001366.
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October 2010
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Kane, E.S., M.R. Chivers, M.R. Turetsky, C.C. Treat, D.G. Petersen, M. Waldrop, J.W. Harden, and A.D. McGuire. 2013. Response of anaerobic carbon cycling to water table manipulation in an Alaskan rich fen. Soil Biology and Biogeochemistry 58:50-60.
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January 2013
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Johnson,K.D., J.W. Harden, A.D. McGuire, M. Clark, F.M. Yuan, and A. Finley. 2013. Permafrost and organic layer interactions over a climate gradient in a discontinuous permafrost zone. Environmental Research Letters 8, 12 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035028.
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August 2013
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Johnson, K.D., J. Harden, A.D. McGuire, N.B. Bliss, J.G. Bockheim, M. Clark, T. Nettleton-Hollingsworth, M.T. Jorgenson, E.S. Kane, M. Mack, J. O’Donnell, C.L. Ping, E.A.G. Schuur, M.R. Turetsky, and D.W. Valentine. 2011. Soil carbon distribution in Alaska in relation to soil-forming factors. Geoderma 167-168:71-84.
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November 2011
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Jain, A., X. Yang, H. Kheshgi, A.D. McGuire, W. Post, and D. Kicklighter. 2009. Nitrogen attenuation of terrestrial carbon cycle response to global environmental factors. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23, GB4028. 13 pp. doi:10.1029/2009GB003519.
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December 2009
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Jafarov, E.E., V.E. Romanovsky, H. Genet, A.D. McGuire, and S.S. Marchenko. 2013. The effects of fire on the thermal stability of permafrost in lowland and upland black spruce forests of interior Alaska in a changing climate. Environmental Research Letters 8, 11 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035030.
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September 2013
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Iversen, C.M., V.L. Sloan, P.F. Sullivan, E.S. Euskirchen, A.D. McGuire, R.J. Norby, A.P. Walker, J.M. Warren, and S.D. Wullschleger. 2014. The unseen iceberg: Plant roots in arctic tundra. Tansley Review. New Phytologist 205:34-58. doi:10.1111/nph.13003.
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December 2014
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Huntzinger, D.N., W.M. Post, Y. Wei, A. Michalak, T.O. West, A. Jacobson, I.T. Baker, J.M. Chen, K.J. Davis, D.J. Hayes, F.M. Hoffman, A.K. Jain, S. Liu, A.D. McGuire, R.P. Neilson, B. Poulter, B.M. Raczka, H. Tian, P. Thornton, E. Tomelleri, N. Viovy, J. Xiao, N. Zeng, M. Zhao, and R. Cook. 2012. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Interim Synthesis: Terrestrial biospheric model intercomparison. Ecological Modelling 232:144-157.
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September 2012
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Hultman, J., M.P. Waldrop, R. Mackelprang, M.M. David, J. McFarland, S.J. Blazewicz, J. Harden, M.R. Turetsky, A.D. McGuire, M.B. Shah, N.C. VerBerkmoes, L.H. Lee, K. Mavrommatis, and J.K. Jansson. 2015. Multi-omics of permafrost, active layer and thermokarst bog soil microbiomes. Nature 521:208-212. doi:10.1038/nature14238.
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May 2015
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Hinzman, L.D., C. Deal, A.D. McGuire, I Polyakov, J. Walsh, and S.H. Mernild. 2013 Trajectory of the Arctic as an integrated system. Ecological Applications 23:1837-1868.
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December 2013
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Hinzman, L. D, N. D. Bettez, W. R. Bolton, F. S. Chapin, M. B. Dyurgerov, C. L. Fastie, B. Griffith, R. D. Hollister, A. Hope, H. P. Huntington, A. M. Jensen, G. J. Jia, T. Jorgenson, D. L. Kane, D. R. Klein, G. Kofinas, A. H. Lynch, A. H. Lloyd, A. D. McGuire, F. E. Nelson, W. C. Oechel, T. E. Osterkamp, C. H. Racine, V. E. Romanovsky, R. S. Stone, D. A. Stow, M. Sturm, C. E. Tweedie, G. L. Vourlitis, M. D. Walker, D. A. Walker, P. J. Webber, J. M. Welker, K. S. Winker, and K. Yoshikawa. 2005. Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other Arctic regions. Climatic Change 72:251-298.
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December 2005
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He., Y., J. Yang,. Q. Zhuang, A.D. McGuire, Q. Zhu, Y. Liu, and R.O Teskey. 2014. Uncertainty in the fate of soil organic carbon: A comparison of three conceptually different decomposition models in a larch plantation. Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences 119:1892-1905. doi:10.1002/2014JG002701.
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October 2014
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He, Y., Q. Zhuang, J.W. Harden, A.D. McGuire, Z. Fan, Y. Liu, and K. Wickland. 2014. The implications of microbial and substrate limitation for the fates of carbon in different organic soil horizon types of boreal forest ecosystems: A mechanistically based model analysis. Biogeosciences 11:4477-4491, doi:10.5194/bg-11-4477-2014.
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August 2014
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He, Y., Q. Zhuang, A.D. McGuire, Y. Liu, and M. Chen. 2013. Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for ecosystem carbon cycle studies. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 118, 11 pages, doi:10.1002/jgrg.20080.
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September 2013
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He, Y., J. Yang, Q. Zhuang, J.W. Harden, A.D. McGuire, Y. Liu, G. Wang, L. Gu. 2016. Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests. Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences 120:2596-2611, doi:10.1002/2015JG003130.
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January 2016
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He, Y., H. Genet, A.D. McGuire, Q. Zhuang, B.K. Wylie, and Y. Zhang. 2016. Terrestrial carbon modeling: Baseline and projections in lowland ecosystems of Alaska. Chapter 7 (pages 133-158) in Z. Zhu and A.D. McGuire, eds., Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of Alaska. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1826, 196 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/pp1826.
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June 2016
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Hayes, D.J., R. Vargas, S.R. Alin, R.T. Conant, L.R. Hutyra, A.R. Jacobson, W.A. Kurz, S. Liu, A.D. McGuire, B. Poulter, and C.W. Woodall. 2018. Chapter 2. The North American carbon budget. In Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report [Cavallaro, N., G. Shrestha, R. Birdsey, M.A. Mayes, R.G. Najjar, S.C. Reed, P. Romero-Lankao, and Z. Zhu (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 71-108, https://doi.org/10.7930/SOCCR2.2018.Ch2.
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November 2018
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Hayes, D.J., D.W. Kicklighter, A.D. McGuire, M. Chen, Q. Zhuang, F. Yuan, J.M. Melillo, and S.D. Wullschleger. 2014. The impacts of recent permafrost thaw on land-atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange. Environmental Research Letters 9, 12 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/045005.
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April 2014
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Hayes, D.J., D.P. Turner, G. Stinson, A.D. McGuire Y. Wei, T.O. West, L.S. Heath, B. deJong, B. McConkey, R. Birdsey, W.A. Kurz, A. Jacobson, D.N. Huntzinger, Y. Pan, W.M. Post, and R.B. Cook. 2012. Reconciling estimates of the contemporary North American carbon balance among terrestrial biosphere models, atmospheric inversions and a new approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange from inventory-based data. Global Change Biology 18:1282-1299. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02627.x.
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May 2012
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Hayes, D.J., A.D. McGuire, D.W. Kicklighter, T.J. Burnside, and J.M. Melillo. 2011. The effects of land cover and land use change on the contemporary carbon balance of the arctic and boreal ecosystems of northern Eurasia. Chapter 6 in Eurasian Arctic Land Cover and Land Use in a Changing Climate (edited by G. Gutman and A. Reissell). Springer, New York. Pp. 109-136.
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January 2011
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Hayes, D.J., A.D. McGuire, D.W. Kicklighter, K.R. Gurney, T.J. Burnside, and J.M. Melillo. 2011. Is the northern high latitude land-based CO2 sink weakening? Global Biogeochemical Cycles 25, GB3018, 14 pp. doi:10.1029/2010GB003813
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August 2011
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Harden, J.W., C.D. Koven, C.-Lu Ping, G. Hugelius, A.D. McGuire, P. Camill, T. Jorgenson, P. Kuhry, G.J. Michaelson, J.A. O’Donnell, E.A.G. Schuur, C. Tarnocai, K. Johnson, and G. Grosse. 2012. Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing. Geophysical Research Letters 39, L15704, 6 pages, doi:10.1029/2012GL051958.
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September 2012
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Grosse, G., S. Goetz, A.D. McGuire, V.E. Romanovsky, and E.A.G. Schuur. 2016. Changing permafrost in a warming world and feedbacks to the Earth System. Submitted to Environmental Research Letters 11, paper 040201, 10 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/040201.
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March 2016
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Grosse, G., J. Harden, M. Turetsky, A.D. McGuire, P. Camill, C. Tarnocoi, S. Frolking, E.A.G. Schuur, T. Jorgenson, S. Marchenko, V. Romanovsky, K.P. Wickland, N. French, M. Waldrop, L. Bourgeau-Chavez, and R. G. Striegl. 2011. Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance. Journal of Geophysical Research 116, G00K06, doi:10.1029/2010JG001507. 23 pp.
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July 2011
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Griffith, B., and A.D. McGuire. 2008. National Wildlife Refuges Case Study: Alaska and the Central Flyway. Annex A: Case Studies. Pages A-36 to A-46 in: Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [S.H. Julius and J.M West (eds. ), J.S. Baron, B. Griffith, L.A. Joyce, P. Kareiva, B.D. Keller, M.A. Palmer, C.H. Peterson, and J.M. Scott (authors)]. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.
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September 2008
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Griffith, B., J.M Scott, R. Adamcik, D. Ashe, B. Czech, R. Fischman, P. Gonzalez, J. Lawler, A.D. McGuire, and A. Pidgorna. 2009. Climate change adaptation options for the US National Wildlife Refuge System. Environmental Management. DOI 10.1007/s00267-009-9323-7
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Publisher Website
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June 2009
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Gray, S.T., A. Bennett, W.R. Bolton, A.L. Breen, T. Carman, E. Euskirchen, H. Genet, E. Jafarov, J. Jenkins, T. Kurkowski, M. Lindgren, P. Martin, S. McAfee, A.D. McGuire, S. Marchenko, R. Muskett, S. Panda, J. Reynolds, A. Robertson, V. Romanovsky, T.S. Rupp, K. Timm, and Y. Zhang. 20134. Using integrated ecosystem modeling to improve toour understanding of climate change impacts in the Alaska region. Alaska National Parks Journal. In press. 12(2):12-17.
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December 2013
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Golet, G. H., P. E. Seiser, A. D. McGuire, D. D. Roby, J. B. Fischer, K. J. Kuletz, D. B. Irons, T. A. Dean, S. C. Jewett, and S. H. Newman. 2002. Long-term direct and indirect effects of the Exxon Valdez oil spill on pigeon guillemots in Prince William Sound, Alaska. Marine Ecology Progress Series 241:287-304.
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July 2002
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Genet, H., Y. He, Z. Lyu, A.D. McGuire, Q. Zhuang, J. Clein, D. D’Amore, A. Bennett, A. Breen, F. Biles, E.S. Euskirchen, K. Johnson, T. Kurkowski, S. (Kushch) Schroder, N. Pastick, T.S. Rupp, B. Wylie, Y. Zhang, X. Zhou, and Z. Zhu. 2018. The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska. Ecological Applications 28:5-27, doi:10.1002/eap.1641.
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January 2018
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Genet, H., Y. He, A.D. McGuire, Q. Zhuang, Y. Zhang, F. Biles, D.V. D’Amore, X. Zhou, and K.D. Johnson. 2016. Terrestrial carbon modeling: Baseline and projections in upland ecosystems. Chapter 6 (pages 105-132) in Z. Zhu and A.D. McGuire, eds., Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of Alaska. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1826, 196 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/pp1826.
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June 2016
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Genet, H., A.D.McGuire, K. Barrett, A. Breen, E.S. Euskirchen, J.F. Johnstone, E.S. Kasischke, A.M. Melvin, A. Bennett, M.C. Mack, T.S. Rupp, E.A.G. Schuur, M.R. Turetsky, and F. Yuan. 2013. Modeling the effects of fire severity and climate warming on active layer thickness and soil carbon storagedynamics of black spruce forests across the landscape in interior Alaska. Environmental Research Letters. In press. 8, 13 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045016.
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November 2013
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Fan, Z., A.D. McGuire, M.R. Turetsky, J.W. Harden, J.M. Waddington, and E.S. Kane. 2013. The response of soil organic carbon of a rich fen peatland in interior Alaska to projected climate change. Global Change Biology 19:604-620. doi:10.1111/gcb.12041.
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February 2013
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Fagre, D.B., C.W. Charles, C.D. Allen, C. Birkeland, F.S. Chapin III, P.M. Groffman, G.R. Gunternspergen, A.K. Knapp, A.D. McGuire, P.J. Mulholland, D.P.C. Peters, D.D. Roby, and G. Sugihara. 2009. Thresholds of climate change in ecosystems. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston VA, USA. 170 pages.
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January 2009
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Euskirchen, E.S., T.B. Carman, and A.D. McGuire. 2014. Changes in the structure and function of northern Alaskan ecosystems when considering variable leaf-out times across groupings of species in a dynamic vegetation model. Global Change Biology. In press. 20:963-978, doi: 10.1111/gcb.12392.
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February 2014
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Euskirchen, E.S., A.P. Bennett, A.L Breen, H. Genet, M.A. Lindgren, T.A. Kurkowski, A.D. McGuire, and T.S. Rupp. 2016. Consequences of changes in vegetation and snow cover for climate feedbacks in Alaska and northwest Canada. Environmental Research Letters 11, paper 105003, 19 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/10/105003.
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October 2016
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Euskirchen, E.S., A.D. McGuire, T.S. Rupp, F.S. Chapin III, and J.E. Walsh. 2009. Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003–2100. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 114, G04022, 15 pages. doi:10.1029/2009JG001095.
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December 2009
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Euskirchen, E.S., A.D. McGuire, F.S. Chapin, and T.S. Rupp. 2010. The changing effects of Alaska boreal forests on the climate system. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40:1336-1346. doi:10.1139/X09-209.
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Publisher Website
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June 2010
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Euskirchen, E.S., A.D. McGuire, F.S. Chapin, III, S. Yi, and C.C. Thompson. 2009. Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: implications for climate feedback. Ecological Applications 19(4):1022-1043.
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July 2009
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Euskirchen, E. S., A. D. McGuire, and F. S. Chapin III. 2007. Energy feedbacks of northern high-latitude ecosystems to the climate system due to reduced snow cover during 20th century warming. Global Change Biology 13:2425-2438, doi:10. 1111/j. 1365-2486. 2007. 01450. x
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October 2007
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Euskirchen, E. S., A. D. McGuire, D. W. Kicklighter, Q. Zhuang, J. S. Clein, . R. J. Dargaville, D. G. Dye, J. S. Kimball, K. C. McDonald, J. M. Melillo, V. E. Romanovsky, and N. V. Smith. 2006. Importance of recent shifts in soil thermal dynamics on growing season length, productivity, and carbon sequestration in terrestrial high-latitude ecosystems. Global Change Biology 12:731-750, doi: 10. 1111/j. 1365-2486. 2006. 01113. x.
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March 2006
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Duffy, P. A., J. Epting, J. M. Graham, T. S. Rupp, and A. D. McGuire. 2007. Analysis of Alaskan burn severity patterns using remotely sensed data. International Journal of Wildland Fire 16:277-284.
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July 2007
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Dargaville, R., A. D. McGuire, and P. Rayner. 2002. Estimates of large-scale fluxes in high latitudes from terrestrial biosphere models and an inversion of atmospheric CO2 measurements. Climatic Change 55:273-285.
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July 2002
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Dargaville, R. J., M. Heimann, A. D. McGuire, I. C. Prentice, D. W. Kicklighter, F. Joos, J. S. Clein, G. Esser, J. Foley, J. Kaplan, R. A. Meier, J. M. Melillo, B. Moore III, N. Ramankutty, T. Reichenau, A. Schloss, S. Sitch, H. Tian, L. J. Williams, and U. Wittenberg. 2002. Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models with atmospheric CO2 measurements: Results from transient simulations considering increasing CO2, climate and land-use effects. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 16, 1092, doi:10. 1029/2001GB001426.
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December 2002
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Csiszar, I., C. O. Justice, A. D. McGuire, M. A. Cochrane, D. P. Roy, F. Brown, S. G. Conard, P. G. H. Frost, L. Giglio, C. Elvidge, M. D. Flannigan, E. Kasischke, D. J. McRae, T. S. Rupp, B. J. Stocks, and D. L. Verbyla. 2004. Land use and fires. Chapter 19 (pp. 329-350) in G. Gutman, A. C. Janetos, C. O. Justice, E. F. Moran, J. F. Mustard, R. R. Rindfuss, D. Skole, B. L. Turner II, and M. A. Cochrane. 2004. Land Change Science: Observing, Monitoring, and Understanding Trajectories of Change on the Earth's Surface. Kluwer Academic Press, Dordrecht, Netherlands.
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December 2004
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Corell, R.W., S.J. Hassol, J.M. Melillo, D. Archer, E. Euskirchen, F.S. Chapin III, A.D. McGuire, T.R. Christensen, V.P. Fichelet, K. Walter, Q. Zhuang, T. Callaghan, S. Bech, and C. McMullen. 2008. Methane from the Arctic: Global warming wildcard. Pages 37-48 in P. Harrison, ed. UNEP Year Book 2008. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.
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January 2008
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Clein, J., A. D. McGuire, E. S. Euskirchen, and M. Calef. 2007. The effects of different climate input datasets on simulated carbon dynamics in the Western Arctic. Earth Interactions 11, Paper 12, doi:10. 1175/E1229. 1.
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September 2007
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Clein, J. S., B. L. Kwiatkowski, A. D. McGuire, J. E. Hobbie, E. B. Rastetter, J. M. Melillo, and D. W. Kicklighter. 2000. Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: a comparison of a plot- and a global-scale ecosystem model to identify process-based uncertainties. Global Change Biology 6(Suppl. 1):127-140.
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December 2000
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Clein, J. S., A. D. McGuire, X. Zhuang, D. W. Kicklighter, J. M. Melillo, S. C. Wofsy, P. G. Jarvis, and J. M. Massheder. 2002. Historical and projected carbon balances of mature black spruce ecosystems across North America: The role of carbon-nitrogen interactions. Plant and Soil 242:15-32.
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July 2002
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Churchill, A.C., M.R. Turetsky, A.D. McGuire, and T.N. Hollingsworth. 2015. Response of plant community structure and primary productivity to experimental drought and flooding in an Alaskan fen. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 45:185-193. doi:10.1139/cjfr-2014-0100.
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February 2015
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Chivers, M.R., M.R. Turetsky, J.M. Waddington, J.W. Harden, and A.D. McGuire. 2009. Effects of experimental water table and temperature manipulations on ecosystem CO2 fluxes in an Alaskan rich fen. Ecosystems 12:1329-1342.
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October 2009
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Chen, G., D.J. Hayes, and A.D. McGuire. 2017. Contributions of wildland fire to terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in North America from 1990 – 2012. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 31:878-900, doi:10.1002/2016GB005548.
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May 2017
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Chapin, F.S., III, S.F. Trainor, P. Cochran, H. Huntington, C. Markon, M. McCammon, A.D. McGuire, and M. Serreze. 2014. Chapter 22: Alaska. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. J.M. Melillo, T.C. Richmond, and G.W. Yohe (editors), U.S. Global Change Research Program, pp. 514-536. doi:10.7930/J00Z7150.
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May 2014
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Chapin, F.S., III, S.F. Trainor, O. Huntington, A.L. Lovecraft, E. Zavaleta, D.C. Natcher, A.D. McGuire, J.L. Nelson, L. Ray, M. Calef, N. Fresco, H. Huntington, T.S. Rupp, L. DeWilde, and R.A. Naylor. 2008. Increasing wildfire in Alaska's boreal forest: Causes, consequences, and pathways to potential solutions of a wicked problem. BioScience 58:531-540.
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July 2008
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Chapin, F.S. III, J. McFarland, A.D. McGuire, E.S. Euskirchen, R.W. Ruess, and K. Kielland. 2009. The changing global carbon cycle: linking plant-soil carbon dynamics to global consequences. Journal of Ecology 97:840-850.
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August 2009
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Chapin, F.S. III, A.D. McGuire, R.W. Ruess, T.N. Hollingsworth, M.C. Mack, J.F. Johnstone, E. Kasischke, E.S. Euskirchen, J.B. Jones, M.T. Jorgenson, K. Kielland, G.P. Kofinas, M.R. Turetsky, J. Yarie, A.H. Lloyd, and D.L. Taylor. 2010. Resilience to climate change in Alaska’s boreal forest. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40:1360-1370. doi:10.1139/X10-074.
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Publisher Website
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July 2010
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Chapin, F. S., III, G. M. Woodwell, J. T. Randerson, G. M. Lovett, E. B. Rastetter, G. M. Lovett, D. D. Baldocchi, D. A. Clark, M. E. Harmon, D. S. Schimel, R. Valentini, C. Wirth, J. D. Aber, J. J. Cole, M. L. Goulden, J. W. Harden, M. Heimann, R. W. Howarth, P. A. Matson, A. D. McGuire, J. M. Melillo, H. A. Mooney, J. C. Neff, R. A. Houghton, M. L. Pace, M. G. Ryan, S. W. Running, O. E. Sala, W. H. Schlesinger, and E. -D. Schulze. 2006. Reconciling carbon-cycle concepts, terminology, and methods. Ecosystems 9:1041-1050
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November 2006
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Chapin, F. S., III, A. D. McGuire, R. W. Ruess, M. W. Walker, R. D. Boone, M. E. Edwards, B. P. Finney, L. D. Hinzman, J. B. Jones, G. P. Juday, E. S. Kasischke, K. Kielland, A. H. Lloyd, M. W. Oswood, C. L. Ping, E. Rexstad, V. E. Romanovsky, J. P. Schimel, E. B. Sparrow, B. Sveinbjornsson, D. W. Valentine, K. Van Cleve, D. L. Verbyla, L. A. Viereck, R. A. Werner, T. L. Wurtz, and J. Yarie. 2006. Summary and synthesis: Past and future changes in the Alaskan boreal forest. Pages 332-338 in F. S. Chapin, III, M. W. Oswood, K. Van Cleve, L. A. Viereck, and D. L. Verbyla, eds. Alaska's Changing Boreal Forest. Oxford University Press, New York.
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June 2006
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Chapin, F. S., A. D. McGuire, J. Randerson, R. Pielke Sr., D. Baldochhi, S. E. Hobbie, N. Roulet, W. Eugster, E. Kasischke, E. B. Rasterrer, S. A. Zimov, and S. W. Running. 2000. Feedbacks from arctic and boreal ecosystems to climate. Global Change Biology 6:S211-S223.
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December 2000
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Chapin, F. S. III, T. S. Rupp, A. M Starfield, L. DeWilde, E. S. Zavaleta, N. Fresco, J. Henkelman, and A. D. McGuire. 2003. Planning for resilience: Modeling change in human-fire interactions in the Alaskan boreal forest. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1(5):255-261.
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September 2003
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Chapin, F. S. III, M. Sturm, M. C. Serreze, J. P. McFadden, J. R. Key, A. H. Lloyd, A. D. McGuire, T. S. Rupp, A. H. Lynch, J. P. Schimel, J. Beringer, H. E. Epstein, E. Euskirchen, L. D. Hinzman, G. Jia, C. -L. Ping, K. D. Tape, C. D. C. Thompson, D. A. Walker, and J. M. Welker. 2006. Role of land-surface changes in arctic summer warming. Science 310:657-660.
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February 2006
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Chapin, F. S. III, M. Berman, T. V. Callaghan, A. -S. Crepin, K. Danell, H. Ducklow, B. Forbes, G. Kofinas, A. D. McGuire, M. Nuttall, R. Virginia, O. Young, and S. Zimov. 2005. Polar Systems. Pages 717-743 in H. Hassan, R. Scholes, and N. Ash, eds. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Current State and Trends. Island Press, Washington, DC.
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January 2005
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Chapin, F. S. III, J. T. Randerson, A. D. McGuire, J. A. Foley, and C. B. Field. 2008. Changing feedbacks in the climate-biosphere system. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 6:313-320, doi:10. 1890/080005.
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June 2008
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Callaghan, T.V., M. Johansson, O. Anisimov, H.H. Christiansen, A. Instanes, V. Romanovsky, S. Smith, and contributing authors (including A.D. McGuire). 2011. Changing permafrost and its impacts. Chapter 5 in Snow, Water, Ice, and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA). Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway, pp. 5-1 to 5-22.
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September 2012
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Calef, M.P., A.D. McGuire, and F.S. Chapin III. 2008. Human influences on wildfire in Alaska from 1998 through 2005: An analysis of the spatial patterns of human impacts. Earth Interactions 12, Paper 1, 17 pages, doi:10. 1175/2007EI220. 1.
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January 2008
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Calef, M.P., A. Varvak, and A.D. McGuire. 2017. Differences in human versus lightning fires between urban and rural areas of the boreal forest in Interior Alaska. Forests 8, paper 422, 15 pages, doi:10.3390/f8110422.
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November 2017
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Calef, M.P., A. Varvak, A.D. McGuire, F.S. Chapin III, and K.B. Reinhold. 2015. Recent changes in annual area burned in interior Alaska: The impact of fire management. Earth Interactions. 19: Paper 5, 17 pages. doi:10.1175/EI-D-14-0025.1.
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July 2015
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Calef, M. P., A. D. McGuire, H. E. Epstein, T. S. Rupp, and H. H. Shugart. 2005. Analysis of vegetation distribution in interior Alaska and sensitivity to climate change using a logistic regression approach. Journal of Biogeography 32:863-878.
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July 2005
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Breen, A.L., A. Bennett, T. Kurkowski, M. Lindgren, J. Schroder, A.D. McGuire, and T.S. Rupp. 2016. Projecting vegetation and wildfire response to changing climate and fire management in interior Alaska. Alaska Fire Science Consortium Research Summary 2016-1, 7 pages.
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October 2016
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Bond-Lamberty, B., D. Epron, J. Harden, M.E. Harmon, F. Hoffman, J. Kumar, A.D. McGuire, and R. Vargas. 2016. Estimating heterotrophic respiration at large scales: Challenges, approaches, and next steps. Ecosphere 7, Article e01380,13 pages, doi:10.1002/ecs2.1380.
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June 2016
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Birdsey, R., N. Bates, M. Behrenfeld, K. Davis, S. Doney, R. Feely, D. Hansell, L. Heath, E. Kasischke, H. Kheshgi, B. Law, C. Lee, A.D. McGuire, P. Raymond, and C.J. Tucker. 2009. Carbon cycle observations: Gaps threaten climate mitigation policies. Eos 90(34):292-293.
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Publisher Website
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August 2009
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Bigelow, N. H., L. B. Brubaker, M. E. Edwards, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, P. M. Anderson, A. A. Andreev, P. J. Bartlein, T. R. Christensen, W. Cramer, J. O. Kaplan, A. V. Lozhkin, N. V. Matveyeva, D. F. Murray, A. D. McGuire, V. Y. Razzhivin, J. C. Ritchie, B. Smith, D. A. Walker, K. Gajewski, V. Wolf, B. H. Holmqvist, Y. Igarashi, K. Kremenetskii, A. Paus, M. F. J. Pisaric, and V. S. Volkova. 2003. Climate change and arctic ecosystems, 1: Vegetation changes north of 55 degrees N between the last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and present. Journal of Geophysical Research--Atmospheres 108(D19), 8170, doi:10. 1029/2002JD002558, 2003.
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October 2003
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Beringer, J., F. S. Chapin, C. C. Thompson, and A. D. McGuire. 2005. Surface energy exchanges along a tundra-forest transition and feedbacks to climate. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 131(3-4):143-161.
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September 2005
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Barrett, K., T. Loboda, A.D. McGuire, H. Genet, E. Hoy, and E. Kasischke. 2016. Static and dynamic controls on fire activity at moderate spatial and temporal scales in the Alaskan boreal forest. Ecosphere 7, Article e01572, 21 pages, doi:10.1002/ec2.1572.
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November 2016
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Barrett, K., E.S. Kasischke, A.D. McGuire, M.R. Turetsky, and E.S. Kane. 2010. Modeling fire severity in black spruce stands in the Alaskan boreal forest. International Journal of Remote Sensing 114:1494-1503, doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2010.02.001.
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July 2010
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Barrett, K., A.D. McGuire, E.E. Hoy, and E.S. Kasischke. 2011. Potential shifts in dominant forest cover in interior Alaska driven by variations in fire severity. Ecological Applications 21(7):2380-2396.
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October 2011
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Barber, V.A., G.P. Juday, T. Osterkamp, R. D'Arrigo, E. Berg, E. Buckley, L. Hinzman, H. Huntington, T. Jorgenson, A.D. McGuire, B. Riordan, A. Whiting, G. Wiles, and M. Wilmking. 2009. A synthesis of recent climate warming effects on terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska. Chapter 9. Pages 110-139 in F. Wagner, ed. Climate Warming in Western North America: Evidence and Environmental Effects. University of Utah Press, Salt Lake City, UT.
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May 2009
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Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, P. Duffy, M. Flannigan, J. Walsh, and J. Melillo. 2009. Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach. Global Change Biology 15:578-600. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01679.x.
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March 2009
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Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, P. Duffy, M. Flannigan, D.W. Kicklighter, and J. Melillo. 2009. Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century. Global Change Biology 15:1491-1510. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01877.x
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June 2009
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Balshi, M. S., A. D. McGuire, Q. Zhuang, D. W. Kicklighter, E. Kasischke, C. Wirth, M. Flannigan, J. Harden, J. S. Clein, T. J. Burnside, J. McAllister, W. A. Kurz, M. Apps, and A. Shvidenko. 2007. The role of historical fire disturbance in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region: A process-based analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, G02029, doi: 10. 1029/2006JG000380, 2007.
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June 2007
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Apps, M. A., and A. D. McGuire. 2005. Climate-Disturbance Interactions in Boreal Forest Ecosystems. Peer-reviewed papers selected from the IBFRA Conference, Fairbanks, Alaska, 3-6 May 2004. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35:2073-2293
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October 2005
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Amthor, J. S., J. M. Chen, J. S. Clein, S. E. Frolking, M. L. Goulden, R. F. Grant, J. S. Kimball, A. W. King, A. D. McGuire, N. T. Nikolov, C. S. Potter, S. Wang, and S. C. Wofsy. 2001. Boreal forest CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration predicted by nine ecosystem process models: Intermodel comparisons and relationships to field measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres 106:33, 623-33, 648.
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December 2001
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Abbott, B.W., J.B. Jones, E.A.G. Schuur, F.S. Chapin III, W.B. Bowden, M.S. Bret-Harte, H.E. Epstein, M.D. Flannigan, T.K. Harms, T.N. Hollingsworth, M.C. Mack, A.D. McGuire, S.M. Natali, A.V. Rocha, S.E. Tank, M.R. Turetsky, J.E. Vonk, K.P. Wickland, G.R. Aiken, H.D. Alexander, R.M.W. Amon, B.W. Benscoter, Y. Bergeron, K. Bishop, O. Blarquez, B. Bond-Lamberty, A.L. Breen, I. Buffam, Y. Cai, C. Carcaillet, S.K Carey, J.M. Chen, H.Y.H. Chen, T.R. Christensen, L.W. Cooper, J.H.C. Cornelissen, W.J. de Groot, T.H. DeLuca, E. Dorrepaal, N. Fetcher, J.C. Finlay, B.C. Forbes, N.H. French, S. Gauthier, M.P. Girardin, S.J. Goetz, J.G. Goldammer, L. Gough, P. Grogan, L. Guo, P.E. Higuera, L. Hinzman, F.S. Hu, G. Hugelius, E.E. Jafarov, R. Jandt, J.F. Johnstone, J. Karlsson, E.S. Kasischke, G. Kattner, R. Kelly, F. Keuper, G.W. Kling, P. Kortelainen, J. Kouki, P. Kuhry, H. Laudon, I. Laurion, R.W. Macdonald, P.J. Mann, P.J. Martikainen, J.W. McClelland, U. Molau, S.F. Oberbauer, D. Olefeldt, D. Pare, M.-A. Parisien, S. Payette, C. Peng, O.S. Pokrovsky, E.B. Rastetter, P.A. Raymond, M.K. Raynolds, G. Rein, J.F. Reynolds, M. Robards, B.M. Rogers, C. Schadel, K. Schaefer, I.K. Schmidt, A. Shvidenko, J. Sky, R.G.M. Spencer, G. Starr, R.G. Striegl, R. Teisserenc, L.J. Tranvik, T. Virtanen, J. Welker, and S. Zimov. 2016. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: An expert assessment. Environmental Research Letters 11, paper 034014, 13 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014.
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March 2016
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