Missouri Project: Agent-based modeling of movements and habitat selection of mid-continent mallards

Missouri Project

Agent-based modeling of movements and habitat selection of mid-continent mallards

February 2019 - January 2021

Personnel

Lisa Webb, Principal Investigator

Participating Agencies

Natural Resource Conservation Service

Landscape management for waterfowl conservation depends on the evaluation of waterfowl responses to habitat conditions, which may be based on complex and emergent interactions between behavioral, environmental and anthropogenic factors. Agent-based models (ABMs) offer a spatially and temporally explicit approach to simulate and evaluate the response of waterfowl populations to conservation scenarios. Our project aims to develop a tool that can be used to test the suitability of alternative conservation allotments to sustain and promote mallard populations during the non-breeding season, consisting of different amounts, configurations, and conditions of management units under a range of management and future environmental conditions.

Research Publications

Research Publications	Publication Date
Weller, F.W., W.S. Beatty, E.B. Webb, D.C. Kesler, D.G. Krementz, K. Asante, L.W. Naylor. Environmental drivers of autumn migration departure decisions in midcontinental mallards. Movement Ecology \| Abstract	January 2022	<i><u>Background</u><br>The timing of autumn migration in ducks is influenced by a range of environmental conditions that may elicit individual experiences and responses from individual birds, yet most studies have investigated relationships at the population level. We used data from individual satellite-tracked mallards (<i>Anas platyrhynchos</i>) to model the timing and environmental drivers of autumn migration movements at the landscape scale.<br><u>Methods</u> <br>We combined two sets of location records (2004-2007, and 2010-2011) from satellite-tracked mallards migrating to winter in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley, and identified records that indicated the start of long-range (≥ 30 km) southward movements during the migration period. We developed candidate models to predict the departure date, conditional on daily mean environmental covariates (temperature, snow and ice cover, wind conditions, precipitation, cloud cover, and pressure), at a 32×32 km resolution. We modeled selection of departure date by individual mallards using a discrete choice model accounting for heterogeneity in individual preferences. We ranked model performance with the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC).<br><u>Results</u> <br>Departure was best predicted (60% precision) by a “winter conditions” model containing temperature and snow cover depth and duration. Models conditional on wind speed, precipitation, pressure variation, and cloud cover received lower support. Number of days of snow cover, recently experienced (snow days), and current snow cover had the strongest positive effect on departure likelihood, followed by experienced days of freezing temperature (frost days) and current low temperature. Distributions of dominant drivers and of correct vs incorrect prediction along the movement tracks indicate that these responses applied throughout the latitudinal range of migration. Among recorded departures, most were driven by snow days (65%) followed by current temperature (30%). <br><u>Conclusions</u> <br>Our results indicate that the dominant environmental driver of departure decision in autumn-migrating mallards was the onset of snow conditions, and secondarily the onset of temperatures close to, or below, the freezing point. Mallards are likely to relocate southwards quickly when faced with foraging that is impeded by snow, and could use declining temperatures as a more graduated early cue for departure. Our findings provide further insights into the functional response of mallards to weather and climate factors during the migration period that ultimately determine distribution.</i>
Weller, F.G., E.B. Webb, W.S. Beatty and D.C. Kesler. Agent-based modeling of movements and habitat selection of mid-continent mallards. Final report	September 2022
Weller, F.G., E.B. Webb, S. Fogenburg, W. S. Beatty, D. Kesler, R.H. Blenk, K.M. Ringelman, M.L. Miller and J.M. Eadie. An agent-based model to quantify energetics, movements and habitat selection of mid-continent mallards in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Ecological Modeling \| Abstract	September 2023	The dynamics of wintering waterfowl populations at the landscape scale are the result of complex interactions of environmental, behavioral and energetic drivers. Agent-based models provide a method to directly link these factors in a spatially explicit framework and allow the emergence of subtle or non-linear patterns from the aggregation of individual agent actions. We adapted the Spatially-explicit Waterbird Agent-based Model Program (SWAMP), originally developed for waterbirds in central California, to simulate a basin-scale population of mallards (<i>Anas platyrhynchos</i>) wintering in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley over a four-month period (November–February). Simulated agents move within the landscape, foraging on areas made available conditional on a probabilistic inundation status, and depleting food resources. The model uses a high-resolution map of eastern Arkansas waterfowl habitats and incorporates a hierarchical habitat selection system that enables mallards to relocate at increasing scales in response to changing food availability. We validated the performance of modeled mallard body condition and behavioral metrics under different environmental conditions against expected outcomes, and found that the simulation produced realistic representations of changes in flight distances, energy expenditure, lipid storage, and foraging habitat use in response to depleting food resources over time. We discuss the model's applicability as a tool to quantify waterfowl response to a range of environmental conditions and evaluate scenarios of landscape composition and configuration in the context of waterfowl population management.

Presentations

Presentations	Presentation Date
Weller, F., E.B. Webb, W. Beatty, S. Fogenburg, D Kesler, R. Blenk, K. Ringelman, M. Miller and J. Eadie. Informing waterfowl conservation planning in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley with an agent-based model: quantifying mallard response to a restored wetland composition and configuration. Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Conference	October 2023
Weller, F., E.B. Webb, W. Beatty, S. Fogenburg, D Kesler, R. Blenk, K. Ringelman, M. Miller and J. Eadie. 2024. Informing waterfowl conservation planning with an agent-based model: quantifying mallard response to wetland composition and configuration. 9th North America Duck Symposium, Portland Oregon.	February 2024
Weller et al. 2020. Using an agent-based model to understand the role of landscape composition on wintering mallard body condition, movements and survival. The Wildlife Society Conference	September 2020
Weller et al. 2020. Agent-based modeling of wintering mallards in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley	January 2020

Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units Program: Missouri Education, Research and Technical Assistance for Managing Our Natural Resources