Montana Wildlife Project
Building a modeling framework for understanding and predicting dynamics of diseases in wildlife: WNS surveillance as a case study
September 2022 - July 2024
- National Wildlife Health Center
We are developing a modeling framework that can be used throughout the “lifecycle” of a disease – from emergence to establishment - providing initial predictions when data is poor and uncertainty is high, that can be updated as more information is collected and the disease spreads. This modeling framework can be used to guide a range of questions as they evolve during disease progressions, including where to target initial and ongoing surveillance efforts, identifying needed research (ecological or epidemiological drivers), and optimizing and informing management strategies. In this project and in collaboration with the USGS National Wildlife Health Center, we are focusing on using the modeling framework to develop a weighted surveillance calculator that can help inform site-specific sample design for white-nose syndrome surveillance.