Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units Program: Florida
Education, Research and Technical Assistance for Managing Our Natural Resources

Climate change is a major phenomenon altering the distribution of non-native fishes and their ecological and socioeconomic impacts. The influence of climate change on water temperature has substantial implications for non-native fish distributions because it influences individual fish survival, growth, reproduction, and dispersal as well as population and community structure. Understanding water temperature variability and the effects of climate change on aquatic thermal regimes is critical for managing non-native fishes now and in the future, especially in Florida where nearly 200 non-native fishes have been documented. Despite the prevalence of non-native fishes in Florida, water temperature dynamics are poorly understood in lotic ecosystems that are prone to non-native fish occurrence (e.g., south Florida canals, Kissimmee, Ocklawaha, and Choctawhatchee rivers). Thermal habitat research in Florida’s lotic systems has not been conducted at sufficient spatiotemporal and ontogenetic resolution to predict when and where non-native fishes are likely to occur in the context of climate change. We will address these knowledge gaps by supplementing Florida’s network of 200 water temperature loggers by deploying 75+ additional loggers in key rivers and canals that are not currently well-monitored. We will use water temperature data to model non-native fish survival, reproduction, recruitment, and dispersal under different climate change scenarios from 2022–2070. We will develop these thermal habitat suitability models into relevant products for non-native fish management, including predictive maps of species distribution and spread. Ultimately, our research will promote development of robust, spatially explicit programs for managing non-native fishes in Florida.